follow and recognize the late advancements in the structure of Dubai GDP

Statistics and Research Methods

Name

Affiliation

Executive Summary

Amid the period 2009-2013, the normal offer of the essential area in Dubai downright GDP was 9%, the optional part was 16% and the tertiary division was 75%. The essential division incorporates horticulture, domesticated animals, angling, mining and quarrying. The optional area incorporates fabricating businesses. The tertiary segment incorporates whatever is left of the financial exercises, which are essentially benefits. The offer of the essential part in Dubai GDP was declining by a yearly normal rate of 4%. The offer of the auxiliary part was staying steady and unaltered. The offer of the tertiary segment was ascending by yearly normal rate of 1% amid the period 2009-2013 (Business Monitor International, BMI 2008)

Introduction

Dubai vision for what’s to come is to turn into the financial center point and the monetary focus of the area. Fundamentally Dubai is resolved to help long haul non-oil GDP development depending on the creation of non-oil items and the procurement of the administrations. Dubai is relying on major monetary segments for the acknowledgment of this vision. These are in particular industry, exchange, administrations and development.

The kind of the financial development of Dubai is controlled by the structure of the economy and the monetary cycle that the economy experiences. The monetary development of Dubai has chiefly been element driven.

Objective

The essential target of this macroeconomic report is to follow and recognize the late advancements in the structure of Dubai GDP and what discovers that structure and what are the conceivable future prospects of the major monetary areas of Dubai economy.

Research Hypothesis

Dubai economic sectors in the coming years is high

Methodology

A logical methodology is utilized to reveal insight into the late improvements in the structure of Dubai GDP and its segments, the execution of the major monetary areas, the profitability of the components of generation and their shares in GDP, and the profits on interest in the diverse parts. This is notwithstanding Dubai government money. Authentic information for the period 2009-2013 is utilized as a part of the investigation. Factual programming, for example, MS Excel are utilized to process and depict the financial information.

Structure of Dubai GDP at Sectorial Level for 2009-2013

Dubai (GDP) is isolated into oil and non-oil GDP, with the recent speaking to the staggering piece of Dubai GDP. As Figure 1 underneath demonstrates, the offer of non-oil GDP altogether GDP expanded from around 90% in 2000 to around 93% in 2013. At the point when the commitment of the mining area (that is oil part) is avoided from the commitment of the non-budgetary partnership segment, the remaining segments contributed 74% of aggregate GDP over the same period.

Figure 2: Structure of Dubai GDP, 2009-2013

95% 70% 45% 20% -5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 Corporation sector Financial sector Government sector Households sector Imputed bank services Source: Own calculations based on Dubai Municipality Statistical Year Book, 2013.

Figure underneath demonstrates the yearly normal development rates of the sectoral parts of Dubai aggregate GDP amid the period 2009-2013 (Syrquin, 1989). As the Figure demonstrates, each of the non-oil GDP sectoral parts was becoming speedier than the oil area. Overall, the non-oil areas were becoming yearly by 8% while the oil part was becoming by 5%. This pattern clarifies why Dubai non-oil GDP commands its aggregate GDP. Figure underneath gives the commitment of the non-money related partnership area by its sub-areas.

Figure 4: Structure of Corporation sector, 2009-2013 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2009 2000 2001 2002 2013

847725-1889125847725-1889125

Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Constrution Trade Resturants & Hotels Transport & communication Real estates Social services Source: Own calculations based on Dubai Municipality Statistical Year Book, 2013.

Inside the non-monetary enterprise area, the offer of the sub-part transport,

Stockpiling and correspondence in GDP was relentlessly rising. It partake in GDP ascended from 12% in 2009 to 18% in 2013.

z-Test: Two Sample for Means

  Variable 1 Variable 2

Mean 3180.75 3747.75

Known Variance 2 3

Observations 4 4

Hypothesized Mean Difference 0 z -507.14 P(Z<=z) one-tail 0 z Critical one-tail 1.644854 P(Z<=z) two-tail 0 z Critical two-tail 1.959964  

The sub-segments whose shares were imperceptibly declining amid the period 2009-2013 are development sub-division and wholesale, retail exchange and repairing administrations sub-area. It is clear from these assumes that the circulation of the quality added is skewed more to capital (Ministry of Planning, 2013).

This outcome is normal for an economy like Dubai which is in view of modest outsider work. The ramifications of this outcome is that work is well on the way to be of low aptitudes and this is liable to bargain the nature of the yield created. At the end of the day, Dubai may contend on cost, however it will be unable to contend on quality.

Dubai Public Finance

As we have seen in segment 2, the administration area has contributed around 9% of Dubai aggregate GDP. In this manner, Dubai government income and use arrangements have a financial effect on the economy of Dubai.

Table 1: Dubai government operations, 2009-2013 (millions of AED)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total revenue 8,724 11,079 10,211 9,103 10,091

Non-tax revenue 7,163 9,548 8,590 7,690 8,187

Oil and gas 3,670 5,875 4,949 3,735 4,000

Enterprise profits 1/ 1,111 1,111 1,035 1,237 1,361

Other 2/ 2,382 2,562 2,606 2,718 2,827

Tax revenue 1,561 1,531 1,621 1,413 1,904

Customs 3/ 1,378 1,365 1,415 1,178 1,622

Income tax 4/ 183 166 206 235 282

Total expenditure 9,850 9,341 10,008 10,215 11,286

Current 5,665 5,523 6,617 6,865 7,742

Wages and salaries 2,328 2,571 2,885 2,939 3,331

Goods and services 2/ 5/ 2,895 1,740 1,983 1,971 2,010

Subsidies and transfers 6/ 254 850 1,238 1,590 1,908

Other 188 362 511 365 493

Development 2,981 2,365 1,841 2,040 2,244

Loans and equity (net) 4 253 350 110 100

Domestic 4 253 350 110 100

Foreign 0 0 0 0 0

Grants – Contribution to federal government 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

Overall balance -1,126 1,738 203 -1,112 -1,195

Consumption

Consumption is a stream variable and is characterized as the yearly spending on last merchandise and administrations, by both government and private area. Sadly, there is no information accessible on Dubai private utilization. Along these lines, we have utilized the utilization weight at UAE level to infer a private utilization figure for Dubai, and this is indicated in Figure 11 underneath as a proportion of Dubai GDP for the period 2000-2013. The normal offer for this period was 0.47. The offer of determined private utilization altogether GDP of Dubai was ascending by a yearly normal rate of 4% amid this period. This is so on the grounds that private utilization was ascending by a yearly normal rate of 11% and the GDP by 7% amid this period. The rising utilization is brought on by rising wage or GDD, developing populace and stable purchaser costs.

Figure 11: Consumption-GDP ratio

0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2013

857250-1977390

Reported government consumption Derived private consumption

Source: Own calculations based on Dubai Municipality Statistical Year Book, 2013.

7. Prospects of the Economic Sectors

Sectorial shares in Dubai Total GDP

0.900 0.800 0.700 0.600 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.100 0.000 2009 2000 2001 2002 2013

875665-1957070

Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector

Source: Own calculations based on Dubai Municipality Statistical Year Book, 2013.

This segment examines the future prospects of the diverse financial segments of Dubai. Figure 14 beneath demonstrates the sectoral shares of Dubai GDP amid the period 2009-2013. The essential area incorporates agribusiness, animals, angling, mining and quarrying. The auxiliary segment incorporates producing commercial ventures.

As per our counts, the offer of the essential area in Dubai GDP was falling by a yearly normal rate of 4% amid the period 2009-2013. The offer of the optional segment did not change throughout the entire period. Then again, the offer of the tertiary area was ascending by a yearly normal rate of 1% amid this period. These outcomes affirm the discoveries in the financial writing on the examples of auxiliary change amid the procedure of monetary development (Syrquin, 1989). The outcomes demonstrate that the administrations division has promising prospects of development later on.

The principal segment of table 2 beneath demonstrates the separate of the tertiary area into its distinctive monetary exercises.

Table 2: Average shares and growth rates of economic activities during 2009-2013

Share growth

Wholesale, retail trade and repairing services 0.16 0.06

Transports, storage and communication 0.15 0.19

Financial services (banks, insurance, finance) 0.11 0.11

Real estate and business services 0.09 0.06

Government services 0.09 0.06

Construction 0.08 0.05

Restaurants and hotels 0.05 0.08

Social and personal services 0.03 0.08

Electricity, gas and water 0.02 0.05

Domestic services of households 0.01 0.07

Imputed bank services -0.03 Source: Own calculations based on Dubai Municipality Statistical Year Book, 2013.

As clear from the table the prevailing monetary exercises in the tertiary division (those with an offer of 5% and then some) are exchanging; transport, stockpiling and correspondence; money related administrations; land and business administrations; taxpayer driven organizations; development; and eateries and inns. The exercises that were becoming generally speedier are transport, stockpiling and correspondence; and monetary administrations.

Conclusions

Amid the late years, the offer of the essential area in Dubai GDP has been declining; the offer of the auxiliary division has been steady and unaltered; while the offer of the tertiary segment has been rising. The prevailing monetary exercises of the tertiary area are exchanging; transport, stockpiling and correspondence; budgetary administrations; land and business administrations; development; eateries and inns.

References

Business Monitor International (BMI) “The UAE Business Forecast Report”, BMI LTD, 2005.

Dubai Municipality, “Statistical Year Book- Emirate of Dubai”, 2013, Statistics

Center.

Dubai Municipality, “Economic survey for private sector establishments”, Statistics Center, 2013.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) “United Arab Emirates: Statistical Appendix”, Country Report No. 04/175, June 2004, Washington, D.C.

Ministry of Planning, “National Abstract for 2000-2013”, available on the Internet online at: http://www.uae.gov.ae/mop/acc_Report/acc_tab_00-03.htm

Syrquin, M. (1989), “Patterns of Structural Change.” in H. Chenery and T. Srinivasan, (eds.), “Handbook of Development Economics”, Vol. 1, Amsterdam, North-Holland.

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