Mortality and Standardization

DEMOGRAPHY

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A.1. Fertility Measures

Age (x) Bangladesh (2010) Japan (2010)

ASFR (per 1000) Female Pop. ASFR (per 1000) Female Pop.

15-19 118.2 8,180,000 5.4 2,963,000

20-24 153.3 7,434,000 39.6 3,315,000

25-29 106.7 6,719,000 91.4 3,833,000

30-34 56.2 6,269,000 93.2 4,247,000

35-39 21.8 5,565,000 39.3 4,828,000

40-44 6.1 4,335,000 6.2 4,265,000

45-49 3.0 4,032,000 0.1 3,914,000

For each of female population (i.e. in Bangladesh and in Japan) calculate:

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in 2010.

Bangladeshi

TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)

=5 x (118.2+153.3+106.7+56.2+21.8+6.1+3.0)

=2326.5 per 1000 women or 2.3265 per woman

Japan

TFR= 5x sum (ASAFRx)

=5x (5.4+39.6+91.4+93.2+39.3+6.2+0.1)

=1376 per 1000 women or 1.376 per woman

The General Fertility Rate (GFR) in 2010.

General Fertility Rate is the birth rate of women of child bearing age (15-44)

= (Total birth/ no. Of women aged 15-44) x 1000

Based on cumulative frequency, GFR of Bangladesh = (42,534,000/38,502,000) x 1000

=1104.721

For Japan= (27,365,000/23,451,000)1000

=1166.901

The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) in 2010, assuming the sex ratio at birth is 104 for Bangladeshi population and 106 for Japanese population.

For the Bangladeshi, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)

= 2.3265 x 100/ (100+ 104)

=1.140

For Japan, GRR in 2010, = TFR x 100/ (100+ SR)

=1.376 x 100/ (100+ 106)

=0.0668

d. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) in 2010, assuming that female mortality for both populations is described by the 2010 life tables for each country. Selected values from the Tx column of the two life tables are presented in the table below (l0 = 100,000).

(Note: Use 3 dcp. for TFR, GFR, GRR and NRR).

Age (x) Bangladeshi female Japanese female

5Lx Tx 5Lx Tx

15 455,185 5,380,375 497,965 7,132,329

20 452,440 4,925,190 497,427 6,634,364

25 449,475 4,472,750 496,765 6,136,937

30 445,740 4,023,275 495,906 5,640,172

35 441,405 3,577,535 494,729 5,144,266

40 435,905 3,136,130 493,020 4,649,537

45 428,520 2,700,225 490,458 4,156,517

50 2,271,705 3,666,059

Survival Probability [0 tends to (x, x+5)]

Age (x) Bangladeshi women Japanese women

15-19 0.91037 0.99593

20-24 0.90488 0.994854

25-29 0.89895 0.99353

30-34 0.89148 0.991812

35-39 0.88281 0.989458

40-44 0.87181 0.98604

45-49 0.85704 0.980916

Proportion of female Birth ASFR x Survival prob. x prop. Of female Birth

Age (x) Bangladeshi Japan Bangladeshi Japan

15-19 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 52.727 2.608

20-24 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 67.972 19.107

25-29 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 47.000 44.042

30-34 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 24.550 44.832

35-39 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 9.430 18.860

40-44 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 2.606 2.965

45-49 100/ (100+104) 100/ (100+106) 1.260 0.048

205.545 132.462

NRR for Bangladeshi =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000

= (5 x 205.545)/1000

=1.028

NRR for Japan =5x sum (ASFR x Proportion of female x survival probability)/ 1000

= (5 x 132.462)/1000

=0.662

The following table presents the age specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japan in the period 2000-2009. Use the information provided in the table to answer Questions e and f.

Age 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

  Age-specific fertility rate (per 1000)

15 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.18

16 0.67 0.78 0.89 0.87 0.77 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.69 0.69

17 2.45 2.74 2.87 2.65 2.54 2.27 2.36 2.19 2.37 2.36

18 5.46 5.75 5.94 5.46 5.32 4.91 5.06 4.84 5.18 4.96

19 10.35 11.00 11.29 10.60 10.51 9.70 9.45 9.42 9.72 9.43

20-24 33.99 34.92 34.96 33.42 33.01 32.03 33.04 32.31 32.48 31.17

25-29 93.86 90.49 87.40 84.06 82.01 78.87 81.57 81.18 81.95 80.95

30-39 67.27 66.04 65.52 65.05 65.92 64.70 68.44 70.39 72.42 73.41

40-49 2.61 2.68 2.86 3.05 3.26 3.33 3.69 4.10 4.42 4.75

e.What is the cumulative fertility rate for the 2005 birth cohort to age 18?

The cumulative frequency of birth for the 2005 to age 18 = 8.01 (per 1000 women)

f.What is the total fertility rate for Japan in 2008?

The total fertility rate of Japan in 2008 = 5 (209.38)

=1046.9 per 1000 women

A.2. Mortality and Standardization

The numbers of population by age on 30/6/2010 and the age specific death rates (ASDR) per 1000 population in 2010 for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population are given in the following table: Japan Bangladesh Number of Deaths ( pop x ASDR/1000)

Age x Female Pop. ASDR (per 1000) Female Pop. ASDR (per 1000) Japan Bangladesh 0-4 2,577,000 0.586 8,816,000 17.149 1,510 151,186 9-May 2,723,000 0.08 9,179,000 1.4 218 12,851 14-Oct 2,877,000 0.071 8,820,000 0.739 204 6,518 15-19 2,929,000 0.164 8,180,000 1.2 480 9,816 20-24 3,106,000 0.255 7,434,000 1.22 792 9,070 25-29 3,531,000 0.29 6,719,000 1.411 1,024 9,481 30-34 4,073,000 0.408 6,269,000 1.929 1,662 12,093 35-39 4,761,000 0.565 5,565,000 1.98 2,690 11,019 40-44 4,251,000 0.831 4,335,000 3.042 3,533 13,187 45-49 3,932,000 1.263 4,032,000 3.799 4,966 15,318 50-54 3,812,000 1.935 3,033,000 6.971 7,376 21,143 55-59 4,414,000 2.763 2,290,000 8.819 12,196 20,196 60-64 5,062,000 3.94 1,787,000 16.071 19,944 28,719 65-69 4,304,000 5.953 1,406,000 29.601 25,622 41,619 70-74 3,742,000 9.832 1,033,000 53.709 36,791 55,481 75-79 3,355,000 18.01 674,000 67.189 60,424 45,285 80-84 2,643,000 34.614 359,000 87.149 91,485 31,287 85+ 2,716,000 107.652 162,000 275.4 292,383 44,615   64,808,000   80,093,000   563,300 538,884 Total Using the mortality data provided in the previous page, estimate:

a. The actual number of deaths and crude death rates (CDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population in 2010.

Note: use 0 decimal places (dcp.) for the number of deaths and 3 dcp. for CDR.

From the table above, the Total Number of Deaths in 2010 female population of:

Japan=563,300

Bangladeshi=538,884

Crude Death Rates (CDR) for the countries,

Japan: CDR= (Total no. of Deaths /population) x1000

(560472.475 /64,808,000)1000

=8.648

Bangladeshi: CDR = (538,884/80,093,000) 1000

=6.728

b. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, calculate the indirectly standardised death rates (ISDR) for Japanese and Bangladeshi female population (Note: use 3 dcp. decimal point for SDR).

Expected number of death= sum[(ASDR standard x population Agex)/1000

  Japan Bangladesh Age x Female Pop. Expected number of death ASDR (per 1000) Female Pop. Expected number of death ASDR (per 1000) 0-4 2,577,000 1,510 0.586 8,816,000 151,186 17.149 9-May 2,723,000 218 0.08 9,179,000 12,851 1.4 14-Oct 2,877,000 204 0.071 8,820,000 6,518 0.739 15-19 2,929,000 480 0.164 8,180,000 9,816 1.2 20-24 3,106,000 792 0.255 7,434,000 9,070 1.22 25-29 3,531,000 1,024 0.29 6,719,000 9,481 1.411 30-34 4,073,000 1,662 0.408 6,269,000 12,093 1.929 35-39 4,761,000 2,690 0.565 5,565,000 11,019 1.98 40-44 4,251,000 3,533 0.831 4,335,000 13,187 3.042 45-49 3,932,000 4,966 1.263 4,032,000 15,318 3.799 50-54 3,812,000 7,376 1.935 3,033,000 21,143 6.971 55-59 4,414,000 12,196 2.763 2,290,000 20,196 8.819 60-64 5,062,000 19,944 3.94 1,787,000 28,719 16.071 65-69 4,304,000 25,622 5.953 1,406,000 41,619 29.601 70-74 3,742,000 36,791 9.832 1,033,000 55,481 53.709 75-79 3,355,000 60,424 18.01 674,000 45,285 67.189 80-84 2,643,000 91,485 34.614 359,000 31,287 87.149 85+ 2,716,000 292,383 107.652 162,000 44,615 275.4   64,808,000   80,093,000   Total 563,300 538,884 Standardized mortality ratio= (Actual deaths/ Expected Deaths)

For Japan=560472.475/563,300 =0.995

For Bangladesh=538,884/538,884=1.000

Indirect SDR= SMR x CDR standard population

For Japan=8.648 x0.995 =8.605 deaths per 1000 population

For Bangladesh=6.728×1.000 =6.728 deaths per 1000 population

c.If the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for Bangladeshi population is estimated 4.52 and for Japanese population is estimated 1.00. Using the 2010 Japanese female population as the standard population, what are the new values of the indirectly standardized mortality rates (ISDR) for Bangladeshi population and for Japanese population?

If the estimated SMR= 4.52 and 1 for Bangladeshi and Japan respectively, then the new values of ISDR

For Bangladesh= 4.54 x 6.728 = 30.545

For Japan=1 x 8.648 = 8.648

A.3. Population Projection

Project the female population of Japan from 2010 to 2015 with the following assumptions:

Female mortality is constant at the levels described by the 2010 Japanese female life table,

Fertility declines by 5% from its level in 2010 levels,

The sex ratio at birth is 106 males per 100 females.

The additions of population in 2010 are also affected by net female migration.

The estimated numbers of females in Japan by age on 30/6/2010 and age-specific fertility rates (per 1000) for Japanese in 2010 are presented in the following table:

Age (x) Number of females

on 30/06/2010 ASFR

(per 1000)

in 2010 Proportion Surviving

x à x+5 Projected

Female pop. before Migration Net

Female Migrants

in 2015 Projected

Female

Population in 2015

0-4 2,577,000 0.9993 2,577,000 -3,299 2573701

5-9 2,723,000 0.9997 2575196.1 -977 257419.1

10-14 2,877,000 0.9994 2722183.1 174 2722357.1

15-19 2,929,000 5.4 0.9987 2875273.8 7,771 2883044.8

20-24 3,106,000 39.6 0.9987 2925192.3 10,649 293584.3

25-29 3,531,000 91.4 0.9983 3101962.2 -1,898 3100064.2

30-34 4,073,000 93.2 0.9976 3524997.3 -3,462 3521535.3

35-39 4,761,000 39.3 0.9966 4063224.8 -1,630 4061594.8

40-44 4,251,000 6.2 0.9948 4228894.8 401 4229295.8

45-49 3,932,000 0.1 0.9921 3900937.2 252 3901189.2

50-54 3,812,000 0.9885 3900937.2 -139 3900798.2

55-59 4,414,000 0.9835 3768162 856 3769018

60-64 5,062,000 0.9598 4341169 2,306 434375

65-69 4,304,000 0.9627 4858507.6 1,105 4859612.6

70-74 3,742,000 0.9348 4143460.8 724 4144184.8

75-79 3,355,000 0.8803 3498021.6 406 3498427.6

80-84 2,643,000 0.7762 2953406.5 139 2953545.5

85+ 2,716,000 0.4725 1248817.5 21 128838.5

Total 64,808,000 51,232,586

Note: Use 5 decimal places for proportion surviving ( x à x+5)

Use 0 decimal places for the projected population

Some values from the Tx column of an abridged life table (l0 = 100,000) for Japanese females (2010) are presented in the following table:

Age x 5Lx Tx Age x 5Lx Tx

0 498,769 8,627,756 50 486,565 3,666,062

5 498,414 8,128,987 55 480,988 3,179,497

10 498,244 7,630,572 60 473,053 2,698,509

15 497,965 7,132,329 65 461,643 2,225,456

20 497,427 6,634,364 70 444,446 1,763,813

25 496,765 6,136,937 75 415,454 1,319,367

30 495,905 5,640,172 80 365,730 903,913

35 494,729 5,144,267 85 283,872 538,183

40 493,020 4,649,538 90 254,311

45 490,456 4,156,518

B.1.Using the results from A.1, describe and comment on the differences in the fertility parameters (ASFR, TFR and NRR) of Bangladeshi and Japanese female population. Comment on how do the values of Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) for Bangladeshi and for Japanese female population in 2010 compare to the replacement level? Suggest possible causes or determinants of its differences in those fertility measures.

According to result of A1, the fertility parameters of Japan and Bangladeshi vary significantly owing to the population contents and growth of the two countries. The TFR, NRR as well as the ASFR of Bangladeshi are higher than that of Japan due to a number of factors. Notably, the NRR of Bangladeshi reflects high female proportion and survival probability raising the figure higher than that of Japan in 2010 at the replacement level. More importantly, with this projection, Bangladeshi shows strong signals of reproduction rate, for women aged 15 to 44 (at the reproductive age). Japan on the other hand shows strong signal of fertility rate owing to different population growth indicators.

Some of the possible causes of the differences in fertility measures are owed to survival mechanisms of the women population, social interactions, and the pre-existing fertility conditions. The determinants of these measures are the fertility transitions, mortality changes, income levels of the population, and the net production rates.

B.2.Using the results from A.2, describe and comment on the differences in the mortality parameters (CDR and I-SDR) and patterns of Japanese and Bangladeshi female population. Please justify what are the possible reasons of its differences.According to A2, Japan shows high mortality parameter rates in terms of CDR and ISDR than Bangladeshi. The female population is high in Bangladesh than In Japan. However, the expected number of deaths is high in Japan than in Bangladesh. The difference is owed to the differences in their ASDR.

The possible reasons for this difference are among others due to their significant differences in the social strata of the two countries that reflect high population variances. The economic differences of the two nations is big as well making different population indicators, perceptions, and the health pre-existing conditions to vary.

a. Compare and contrast the main characteristics of the long term population projections produced by the following five organisations (mention at least two points for each organisation):

United Nations (UN)

The UN publishes their population projections every 2 years with scenarios which differ in their assumptions on fertility rates. The main characteristics of these projections produced by the United Nations are production of these population scenarios with high, low and medium fertility trends assumptions in the future ((Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).). It also characterized by scenarios that illustrate the influence of rising life expectancy on projection outcomes though comparisons of fertility and alternative mortality scenarios in the future.

World Bank (WB)

Population projections characterized by their annual projections at the country levels. The long term projections are six biennial projections to 2150, which have base case and assumptions of either slow or rapid fertility decline. Their long-term projections are also characterized by 40 years projection output, and mainly for internal use.

(3) US Census Bureau (USCB)

The USCB long term projections are characterized by single a scenario with printed versions that show their output for 15 to 25 years into the future. Their projections are updated annually through to 2050.

(4) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

The IIASA population projections are characterized by three scenarios of output in 13 regions in the world through to 2100. The three outputs are fertility, mortality, and migration. The main characteristic of this institution is that they provide probabilistic output.

(5) Population reference Bureau (PRB)

The long-term population projection of the PRB is characterized by limitations of their public output to population size. In addition, their projections combine country-supplied projections, projections by the UN as well as that of the USCB to generate their own projections in minority of countries. The main characteristic of their projections is their generation of projections if only in access to more and reliable data on baseline population, fertility and mortality (Brian, et all. 2001, pp 203-238).

b. What projection method is used by each of these organizations?

The projection method used by all the above institutions is the cohort-component methodology.

c. What are the two possible approaches discussed for allowing for a range of projected outcomes relating to assumptions about the future?

The two approaches discussed are the single scenario and the use of different scenario approach. They also use time based approach for projections.

d. Summarize in point form (cover at least 5 points), the issues discussed in section 5 relating to assumptions for fertility trends for different countries over the future period of projections.

Individual institutions have made massive steps in making significant contributions in making global projections in population by of use different methodologies in population projections

United States and the United Nations have taken leadership roles and contributions to population projections in the world that are significant in global socio-economic planning.

Most long term projections have myriad approaches but are characteristically based on time series scenarios that cover periods of time.

The input assumptions which are the basis of these projections, for instance future rates of fertility, mortality and migration, vary considerably with the number output scenarios produced.

The United Nations are best suited in producing long term projections based on their 10 years approximations which caters substantial changes and assumptions over the period.

Reference List

Brian, et all. 2001, A Guide to Global Population Projections, Demographic research, vol (4); p 203-288.

Frejka, T., & Sardon, J.-P. (2004). Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: a cohort analysis. Dordrecht [u.a.], Kluwer.

United Nations. (2009). Completing the fertility transition. New York, N.Y., United Nations.