Fertility and Mortality

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Abstract

Background Understanding future population trends is critical for forecasting and preparing for shifting age structures, resource and health-care demands, and environmental and economic environments. Future fertility trends are a crucial input in estimating future overall population, and they are also surrounded by significant uncertainty and differing estimation and forecasting approaches, resulting in significant discrepancies in global population forecasts. Fertility, or the number of children per woman, and mortality, or deaths per 1000 people, are the two main components of population projections. Both fertility and mortality depend on a set of factors that influence future life choices and future health outcomes. Despite a long-standing debate about the drivers of fertility levels, it is generally agreed that socioeconomic conditions are mainly responsible for the average age at first birth in most countries. Less clear is their association with the changing size of populations (Breakey, & Voulgaropoulos, 2021).

For many years, population projections have followed an exponential growth pattern, in which population growth was assumed to be constant throughout the projection period. Documents and statements by national statistical agencies were often based on such assumptions. In this study, we propose a new, empirical approach to projections by using individual observations of fertility and mortality. This approach is an alternative to using average annual rates of change derived from large global databases. Instead, we use local estimates of fertility and mortality rates that are more likely to indicate the changing growth of populations at the time level. We compare differences in projected population size with results from two approaches.

Fertility is a term that alludes to a creature’s ability to reproduce naturally. It is, in essence, a collection of women’s genuine birth performance. The birth rate, fertility rate, reproduction rate, and real fertility rate are the four traditional indicators used to assess fertility. Demography is the study of populations of all kinds, including human populations. The main areas of demography are population analysis and applied demography. Population analysis deals with the size and distribution of human populations along with trends in size and distribution. Applied demography is concerned with medical or other aspects in which a population that does not fit any particular category is relevant, such as application to the family planning program.

In human demography, fertility is the number of children born per woman. As of 2010, the world’s average fertility rate was 2.48 children per woman. The average fertility rate defines the number of daughters a woman would bear during her lifetime if she passed through her childbearing years conforming to that age-specific fertility rate without regard to the timing or identity of any individual child. Fertility rates are usually expressed as the number of children born per woman. They are used to help predict population growth, and as indicators of the level of health in a society. Fertility rates are also used to calculate the number of reproductive years remaining for a woman in order to assess the quantity, timing, and spacing of children born. In some countries, the number of children born to women is used to estimate the workforce available to support the government (Breakey & Voulgaropoulos, 2021).

The replacement level fertility is the number of children that a couple must have in order for their offspring numbers to replace themselves, and maintain stable population numbers. This parameter takes into consideration the mortality rates of offspring. Achieving replacement level fertility over a long period of time depends on the death rates of offspring being lower than their birth rates. The fertility rate can be estimated from other demographic variables. The general fertility rate is the number of live births of any children per 1000 women in a given age group. This rate can be further divided into age specific fertility rates, which is the number of live births to mothers within an age group per 1,000 female population of legal age in that same age group (Breakey & Voulgaropoulos, 2021). The total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. This rate can be further divided into consecutive order total fertility rates, which is an estimate based on the current year and right before estimates for the following year. In this paper, we will discuss fertility and mortality from three perspectives: from a woman’s perspective, from a man’s perspective, and from the population’s perspective. In our opinion, it is important to approach these topics in all three approaches in order to get a better understanding of these issues.

Mortality rate, on the other hand refers to a systematic measure of the number of deaths due to a particular cause or general deaths in a specific population at a particular time. It is also referred to as the death rate, which can be used as a true rate to determine the risk of dying of a certain illness. The two terms can be used interchangeably. However, the United States Department of Health and Human Services uses the phrase “mortality rate” in its publications (1). The migratory pattern varies with the studies and may vary according to different factors such as age, geographical location, sex, or race. The mortality rate is higher among women than men in different populations because they are more affected by diseases than men. Dying from accidental deaths also happens more often to women than men because a majority of fatal accidents happen to women every year (2). The mortality rate is calculated through various methods for specific years and countries. Death is defined as a period at which vital functions have ceased. The understanding of the mortality rate is beneficial to a country’s economic development, public health, and the allocation of resources (Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017). Demography is the study of human populations through time, but an issue that has been largely ignored by scholars is the mortality rate. The importance of understanding the mortality rate cannot be understated for advancing an improved quality of life for all people.

Culture is among the key factors that affect the fertility rate in society. The majority of cultures around the world tend to favor family development and hence promote high birth rates. The world’s population is growing at a rapid rate and the average human life span is also increasing. This has led to a significant increase in the total number of people on Earth. According to the U.S. National Vital Statistics Report, during the year 2010, there were approximately 6.8 billion people inhabiting Earth. One of the main causes for this is the cultural approval and promotion of family development among most societies, despite being economically disadvantaged. A study led by a research scientist from the University of Oxford was carried out among 2,250 women aged between 16 and 49 in urban areas in Burkina Faso and Ghana who were in possession of both primary and secondary level education (Kramer et.al 2021). The study aimed at understanding how social and cultural factors influence their reproductive behaviors. The results showed that women who practiced certain traditional customs had significantly higher fertility rates than those with different customs or no customs at all (1).

Marital status is also a factor affecting the fertility rate. Whether a person is married or not tends to have an impact on their fertility rate. This mostly affects the women. Women that live in a society with more divorces tend to have a lower fertility rate. This is because there is less of the “social pressure” that people put on married couples where they might get married young. Women who are single and not living with anyone tend to have higher rates of infertility than women who are married because they are more likely to be sexually active without constraints (Kramer et.al 2021). So, the factors affecting fertility in society include marital status, sexual activity, and the level of freedom people have within their society. In addition, there can also be other factors such as poverty and access to easily available contraception which can impact birth rates among women as well.

Poverty is also identified as a major factor affecting the mortality rate around the world. Rich countries with higher levels of GDP tend to have a lower fertility rate compared to poor countries with lower GDP. Women in poor countries tend to have more than three children. The fertility rate in Russia was very low at 1.6 children born per woman, and this explains why Russia is poor. In the United States, which is an example of a rich country, the fertility rate is 1.8 children per woman (Colleran & Snopkowski, 2018). The disparity between rich and poor countries has caused most of the migration to move from poor countries to rich countries. The economy of a country can be viewed as a machine that requires people to work together to provide food, shelter, water, and clothes for everyone living in that country. In order for this machine to work properly, as many people as possible must have an income so they can pay taxes and buy food and other necessities such as clothing.

The level of education in a particular community tends to have an impact on the fertility rate of a society. The higher the level of education the lower the birth rates in a community. This is, however, only true in developed countries which have a high level of education. In developing countries, it is the opposite (Colleran & Snopkowski, 2018). There are many reasons why this might be true such as better access to birth control methods and psycho-social factors like having time for family life and children instead of working long hours or being pressured by society to have them.

The financial cost of having children. The ability of a couple to cater to the needs of a child tends to affect their ability to give birth. It can be difficult to make a decision when the future is uncertain. Self-esteem and body image are often concerns of many women who are trying to conceive. Fertility can vary hugely between couples, with extremely high numbers of babies being born to some and very few being born to others, so it may be that undergoing medical treatment or other treatments in order to have a chance of conceiving will not work well for you. Becoming pregnant is no easy task, but it is possible for most women in the UK De (Silva & Tenreyro, 2017). For those who are struggling with fertility issues, finding out what’s causing their difficulties can help them make decisions about their next steps.

Political factors are also a major factor affecting the birth rate. There are certain government policies aimed at increasing the population of a country while other policies are directed towards reducing the number of people in a country since it is already overpopulated. A country’s political regime is one of the most important determinants of its population growth and rate of fertility. In most countries, fertility rates are influenced by the desire to have children. However, there is no single set of reasons for this. In some cultures, marriage is expected rather than desired; in others, people delay marriage until they are older or choose not to have children; and in still other cultures, many people do not want children yet voluntarily go on to adopt ones that were previously unwanted. (De Silva & Tenreyro, 2017) As a result of these factors, a country’s fertility rate will depend entirely on their economic policy for both the government and business leaders as well as their citizens.

Some factors that affect fertility rate tend to affect mortality rate. Education is one of them. In the United States, higher education levers tend to lead to a lower mortality rate for both men and women. This is because when one is educated they are aware of the dangers of risky behavior and one is also more likely to have a job or a position in which they do not need to engage in high-risk activities. Some scholars believe that education is directly linked to fertility rates because when one has an education they will understand more about their body and know the steps that need to be taken to prevent pregnancy. The use of contraceptives has also been shown to affect the mortality rate in some countries. For example, Uganda’s fertility rate went down from 7 births per woman in 1989 to 6.4 births per woman in 1990 after the government adopted family planning and contraceptives for their medical benefit plans (Sidorenko, 2019).

Alcohol and Cigarette consumption is a lifestyle that affects the mortality rate in a particular country. People who consume these products are more likely to die from various diseases, which is a bad thing for them. However, these lifestyle choices also affect fertility rates in a country. The same lifestyle that influences mortality rates influences fertility rates as well because the effects of tobacco and alcohol on the body are closely related. A recent study shows that about one-fourth of all women will experience infertility in their lifetime. This study theorizes that factors such as alcohol consumption, smoking, and obesity in relation to fertility may be causal factors for this high rate of infertility among women (Stolnitz, 2017).

An individual’s occupation also has an impact on adult mortality. Occupational mortality is more common in some occupations than in others. For example, the mortality rate of construction laborers is greater than that of life insurance agents. Similarly, miners and fishermen tend to experience a higher risk of death (due to occupational hazards such as black lung disease or drowning) than police officers or clergy members. Even when an occupation has an elevated risk of death associated with it, not all workers within that occupation will necessarily share the same risk (van de Walk, 2017).

In summation, it is clear that fertility and mortality are two concepts that go hand in hand. the factors that affect fertility tend to have an impact on mortality rates too. we have seen this time and time again. in order to increase our population, we need to not only address the problems in the medical field but change the way we pursue life and health as a whole. We can’t just leave it up to chance and hope for a higher fertility rate without looking at other factors, such as how we treat our bodies, what type of lifestyle we lead, and how much stress we’re experiencing day-to-day. if you want to be part of changing your country’s future for the better then you’ll need to work on all fronts: physical, psychological, social — everything — in order to make it happen.

References

Breakey, G. F., & Voulgaropoulos, E. (2021). Fertility and Mortality Data. In Laos Health Survey (pp. 47-50). University of Hawaii Press.

Colleran, H., & Snopkowski, K. (2018). Variation in wealth and educational drivers of fertility decline across 45 countries. Population Ecology, 60(1), 155-169.

De Silva, T., & Tenreyro, S. (2017). Population control policies and fertility convergence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(4), 205-28.

Kramer, K. L., Hackman, J., Schacht, R., & Davis, H. E. (2021). Effects of family planning on fertility behaviour across the demographic transition. Scientific reports, 11(1), 1-12.

Sánchez-Barricarte, J. J. (2017). Mortality–fertility synergies during the demographic transition in the developed world. Population studies, 71(2), 155-170.

Sidorenko, A. (2019). Demographic transition and” demographic security” in post-Soviet countries. Population and Еconomics, (3), 1-23.

Stolnitz, G. J. (2017). The demographic transition: from high to low birth rates and death rates (pp. 30-46). Routledge.

van de Walk, F. (2017). Infant mortality and the European demographic transition. In The decline of fertility in Europe (pp. 201-233). Princeton University Press.