Recent orders
The Gallito Restaurant is located on Torty Island, a resort company near Fort Myers, Florida.
Question # 1:
The Gallito Restaurant is located on Torty Island, a resort company near Fort Myers, Florida. The restaurant, which is owned and operated by Kelly Smith, just completed its third year of operations. During this time, Kelly sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The effort made by Kelly and her staff proved successful, and her restaurant is currently one of the best and fast growing restaurants on the island. Kelly conclude that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales for the coming month in advance. Kelly compiled the following data on total food and beverage sales for the last ear of operation.
Perform an analysis of the sales data of the Gallito Restaurant. And recommend following;
A graph of time series. [5 marks]
Forecast sales for January of next year using
Four months moving average [10 marks]
Month Sales 4-month Moving Average Forecast
January 263
February 238
March 247
April 193
May 196 284.25
June 149 255.75
July 157 235.5
August 161 214
September 122 196.25
October 130 179.75
November 167 184.25
December 230 202.5
January ? 162.25
Thus the predicted sell for January next year is $162.25
Three months weight moving average, using weight of 0.5 for the most recent period, 0.3 for the second most recent period and 0.2 for the third most recent period. [10 marks]
Month Sales 3-month moving Average Forecast
January 263 February 238 March 247 April 193 May 196 June 149 July 157 August 161 September 122 October 130 26
November 167 50.1
December 230 115
January ? 191.1
Use Alpha of 0.3 and use Exponential smoothing method for forecast. [10 marks]
Exponential smoothing method
New Forecast = a.. last actual demand – (1- a) (last forecast)
Ft+1= aDt + (1- a)Ft
Exponential smoothing method
Alpha= 0.3
Month Sales Forecast January 263 200 February 238 218.9 March 247 224.63 April 193 231.34 May 196 219.84 June 149 212.69 July 157 193.58 August 161 182.61 September 122 176.13 October 130 159.89 November 167 150.92 December 230 155.74 January ? 178.02 Among them (i.e., in in part b) which method you will recommend, give your justification and support work. [10 marks]
We compare forecasted values with actual values to see how well one model works or to compare models.
I would use the last one which is exponential smoothing because if gives a very detailed forecast as indicated in the table above and the graph below.
d) Briefly describe what are the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. [5 marks]
Advantage and disadvantage of Moving Average
The SMA is the most straightforward calculation, the average price over a chosen time period. The main advantage of the SMA is that it offers a smoothed line, less prone to whipsawing up and down in response to slight, temporary price swings back and forth. Therefore, it provides a more stable level indicating support or resistance.
Disadvantage
The SMA’s weakness is that it is slower to respond to rapid price changes that often occur at market reversal points. The SMA is often favored by traders or analysts operating on longer time frames, such as daily or weekly charts.
Advantage and disadvantage of Exponential Moving Average
The advantage of the HYPERLINK “http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ema.asp” EMA is that by being weighted to the most recent price changes, it responds more quickly to price changes than the SMA does. This is particularly helpful to traders attempting to trade intraday swing highs and lows, since the EMA signals trend change more rapidly than the SMA does.
Disadvantage
The concurrent disadvantage of the greater sensitivity of the EMA is that it is more vulnerable to false signals and getting whipsawed back and forth. The EMA is commonly used by intraday traders who are trading on shorter time frame charts, such as the 15-minute or hourly charts.
Advantage and disadvantage of Weighted Moving Average
A trader using a WMA is less likely to pick a trend change early but is also less likely to mistake a minor correction for a trend change. The advantage of using WMAs is that they pick up trends more quickly than simple moving averages. Some traders prefer to use WMAs for shorter time periods to capture changes quicker.
Disadvantage
The disadvantage of WMAs is that more false signals are likely to be generated than with simple moving averages. Some investors prefer simple moving averages over long time periods to identify long-term trend changes.
Question # 2:
In January, a car dealer predicted February demand for 142 Ford Mustang. Actual February demand 153 autos.
(a). Using a smoothing constant chosen by management of Alpha = 0.2, how can you forecast Marchdemand? [6 marks]
Ft+1= aDt + (1- a)Ft t = 1F1 = 142t = 2Ft = αDt – 1 + (1 – α)Ft – 1F2 = αD2 – 1 + (1 – α)F2 – 1F2 = 0.2(D1) + (1 – 0.2)F1F2 = 0.2(D1) + (0.8)F1F2 = 0.2(153) + (0.8)142F2 = 30.4 + 113.6F2 = 144
Or as below
Time Demand Exponential Smoothing Forecast Naïve Approach Alpha 0.2
January February 153 142 March ? 144 142 b) If you use Naïve Approach, what would be forecast of March demand? [1 mark]
The demand for march will be 142
c). Which one, (a) or (b), gives a better forecast and why? [3 marks].
The first which is the exponential is the best method to determine the forecast for March as compared to naïve. The naïve one is far away from the real value for March.
The future of trade pearls in the UAE is bright
The main idea
The future of trade pearls in the UAE is bright DPE Dubai pearl exchange This platform was created in 2009. Dubai pearl Exchange was created to provide a central event and coordinating industry that leads individual and companies to share and come together to come up with information and insight to each other in the industry. (Schwab, 2009)
Skills + expertise to culture pearls “industry” It is worth to note that the pearl industry needs skills in getting the pearly from the sea (Eyring, Lim & Danish, 2014). The procedure of ensuring that the pearl are transformed to the right products, the ability of differentiating fake and real cultural pearl and skills on how to denote the price of pearl is worth to note as an expertise ((Eyring, Lim & Danish, 2014).)
The price of pearls
the prices of pearl trade is increasing with time
Moreover, many reports shows that the prices of pearl trade is increasing with time. In Dubai it raise from 22 million AED to more than 95 million AED, from 2007 to 2008. The numbers in the same period were increased for the import (15.6 to 40.1 million) and re-export (6.4 to 45.6 million) as well. (Sambidge, 2009).
The future of trade pearls in the UAE is bright
Resources
Eyring, A. R., Lim, A., & Danish, T. (2014). Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority (DMCC): the transformation of a government-linked firm in Dubai.Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, 4(6), 1-19.
Schwab, K. (Ed.). (2009). The global competitiveness report 2009-2010. World Economic Forum.
The Future of Technology as Argued By Dinello
The Future of Technology as Argued By Dinello
Name
Institution
Date
Daniel Dinello in his book has given a diverse view on different field of technology that was to affect the current and future development of culture. Dinello criticizes the experts in the fields of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, robotics, and those who predicted the future state of human evolution where the human will interface completely with technology that is to become a new superior species. He states that human beings will no longer be fully biological entities but will be transcended by the limitation of flesh, therefore, enter in a technological utopia freed from disease and death. His argument has elicited a lot of argument from all quarters with some argue that his fiction are true while others saying that such thoughts were mere dreams and cannot take place in the pop culture (Dinello, 2005).
In his writing about the post human evolution, he describes technology in two spheres; the techno-heaven and the techno-hell. This has prompted the twenty first century scientists to work on the emerging fields of technology so that to make the current and future lives brighter. A substantial example of the technological change is the process where human bodies will be perfected through genetic manipulation and the fusion of human and machine. It further states that human being will completely shed the shackles of pain, disease, and death as they will be downloaded to death free-robots where they can leave forever (Johnson, 2011). However, this analogy has not been achieved even in the pop generation though there is tremendous improvement in the field of robotics as many robots have been sent to the space.
Critics argue that the authors of science fiction about post human evolution would not mark the beginning of the end of human freedom, dignity, and values but will lead to a darker future dominated by mad scientists, killer clones, ramping robots, and uncontrolled viruses. However, Dinello examines the dramatic conflicts between techno-dystopia predicted by the science fiction and techno-utopia promised by real world scientists. This argument has been clearly shown in the pop culture where there is a lot of competition by the scientist to develop more robots and the creation of viruses and viruses (Dinello, 2005). In the pop culture scientist more often work in the laboratory to create viruses and their anti-viruses. There are a number of uncontrolled viruses in the current world for example, it is say that to date cure for HIV virus has not been found
In his book “the science of fiction”, he draws useful materials that include, films, books, television, and computer games and he argues that science fiction works as a substantial corrective to technological domination, religiously rationalized , profit oriented, and countering techno-hype motives of science (Johnson, 2011). To control and curtain the spread of diseases, Dinello encourages human beings to construct ways and methods to regulate new technology. His argument has a fundamental basic since uncontrolled technology can lead to world disaster as the one experience in Hiroshima bombing of Japan where many lost their lives. The modern technology also has contributed to the modern cyber-crimes hence should be controlled in the pop culture.
He bravely align him selves with the technophobes and has a number of good reasons for his role in the development of technology in the pop and future generation. Dinello authoritatively presents an optimistic view of technological development that was to help develop human beings in future. In addition, it more likely those robots like the ones in the terminator films could move than those found in the forbidden planet and lost in space (Hollinger & Gordon, 2002). The discovery of robots has help human being to discover new technology and also to send object to the space hence improving the pop culture of the current generation.
References
Dinello, D. (2005). Technophobia!: Science fiction visions of posthuman technology. Austin: Univ. of Texas Press.
Hollinger, V., & Gordon, J. (2002). Edging into the future: Science fiction and contemporary cultural transformation. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Johnson, B. D. (2011). Science fiction prototyping: Designing the future with science fiction. S.l.: Morgan & Claypool.