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Professor Malia Lee Womack
Your NameProfessor Malia Lee Womack
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Thesis statement: State the thesis sentence you plan to include in the introduction paragraph of your Feminist Topic Research Paper. The thesis should be modeled similarly to the following: “I argue that [state your topic] should be included in the syllabus. I will analyze [state the popular source you found through independent research] through the lens of [state the 3 course readings to which the topic relates] and [state the two scholarly readings you found through independent research]. I will use these sources to prove that [state your topic] builds on and enriches our class materials by [state your paper’s central point].
Main Point 1: Summarize in a few sentences the first main point you will introduce in the body of your Feminist Topic Research Paper. The summary should inform how you will analyze your popular source by applying an outside class reading and a class reading to argue why your proposed topic should be added to the syllabus.
Main Point 2: Summarize in a few sentences the second main point you will introduce in the body of your Feminist Topic Research Paper. The summary should inform how you will analyze your popular source by applying an outside class reading and a class reading to argue why your proposed topic should be added to the syllabus.
Main Point 3: Summarize in a few sentences the third main point you will introduce in the body of your Feminist Topic Research Paper. The summary should inform how you will analyze your popular source by applying an outside class reading and a class reading to argue why your proposed topic should be added to the syllabus.
(Don’t forget to include a works cited page!)
Professor Malia Lee Womack (2)
Human Development and Women’s Studies 453/HDEV 453
Sexual Orientations in Human Development
Cal State University East Bay
Fall 2022
4 Units
Professor Malia Lee Womack, PhD
malia.womack@csueastbay.edu
Office Hours and Location: by appointment
COURSE DESCRIPTION
This course explores theory and research related to sexuality, sexual orientation, sexual identity development, sexuality stereotypes and myths, gender identity, and love relationships. The course also investigates the relationships between sexual orientations and friendship networks, families, and community relations. Likewise, the class examines how gender is socially constructed and also applies an intersectional approach to document how sexuality or gender are identity traits that are experienced simultaneously with other privileged and/or subjugated identity traits. For example, a person may not experience one form of discrimination at a time (such as in relation to their gender) rather they may experience multiple forms of discrimination simultaneously (such as in relation to their gender, sex, race, sexuality, ethnicity, class, skin color, family design, trauma history, dis/abilities, age, geographic location, and other defining traits). Moreover, someone can experience discrimination and privilege simultaneously as well as multiple forms of privilege simultaneously. In this class students will also examine concepts such as heteronormativity, homonormativity, the family as a socio-political institution, sexuality and youth, social interpretations of the human body, government regulation of women’s bodies, and disability and motherhood. Finally, students will reflect on their own intersectional experiences with gender and sexuality and their own positionality in systems of oppression and privilege.
REQUIRED TEXT
There is no required textbook. In response to the financial stress students endure, this course will provide students diverse journal articles and other class materials at no cost. All readings will be provided to students through Canvas.
COURSE REQUIREMENTS AND GRADING
Weekly discussion posts – 15%
Feminist Topic Proposal – 15%
Feminist Topic Research Paper – 35%
Final Exam – 35%
100-93% = A83-80% = B-69-67% = D+
92-90% = A-79-77% = C+66-60% = D
89-87% = B+76-73% = C59 and below = F
86-84% = B72-70% = C-
WEEKLY DISCUSSION POSTS
This course does not require synchronous sessions. However, if a situation will cause a student to miss an assignment they must discuss it with their instructor immediately. Each student is required to do all of the required readings and contribute in a thoughtful and informed manner to class discussions/writing assignments. Since this is a distance-learning course, students’ attendance is based on their online activity and participation. Each week students will be directed to complete short writing assignments that summarize and analyze the main points of the assigned readings. Students are expected to submit their summary and analysis by Wednesdays and respond to a classmate’s post by Sundays. Students who fail to post within the required time will lose participation credit for that day. All postings are expected to demonstrate thoughtful engagement with course readings and materials.
The instructor will also post weekly videos in Canvas to guide students through the course and highlight important concepts, key terms, and strategies for reaching the course’s learning outcomes. Students must carefully watch the weekly videos and take notes to be successful in the course; students who do not follow these instructions will not be successful. Students will be asked to construct three bullet points per week about that week’s video and to post the bullet points by Wednesdays; the bullet points should focus on items such as reading summaries and analysis, key terms, and class concepts. In other words, the bullet points should only focus on items that will be useful for preparation for an exam, major assignments, and understanding class topics. The videos will support students to engage with course materials in depth, will provide clarity, and will provide guidance about major course assignments and goals. If any of the video topics are unclear to a student they should schedule a meeting with their instructor immediately who will offer personalized insight for their questions.
PAPER FORMATTING
Any major writing assignments in this class must be in MLA format which is summarized here: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/mla_style/mla_style_introduction.html
FEMINIST TOPIC PROPOSAL
This assignment is designed to prepare students for the Feminist Topic Research Paper which is due later in the semester. Be sure to carefully model your proposal similar to the Feminist Topic Sample Proposal that will be provided by your instructor. In this Topic Proposal students should reflect on our weekly topics covered in the course (see the bolded titles for each week at the bottom of this syllabus) and construct a 1-2 page MLA formatted proposal that argues for an original/not yet included topic to be included in our syllabus (for example “Feminist Pornography”). The student should locate and include one popular source and two scholarly sources that would be assigned during the week their topic would be taught and explain why these materials are useful. The proposal should be organized around a thesis sentence and should cite at least three course readings in addition to the three outside sources the student locates. Do not assume your reader is familiar with any of your sources; students should describe each source to their reader. The proposal must explain why the topic should be included in the syllabus as well as how it relates to some of our course materials. Be sure to state your topic succinctly, introduce key terms and content covered in our course thus far, and explain how your proposed topic relates to these course resources.
FEMINIST TOPIC RESEARCH PAPER
This paper must be 6-7 pages and should build on your Feminist Topic Proposal. Students must engage with one popular source and two secondary sources they independently locate and analyze in depth four or more of our course readings. The most successful papers will engage in depth with our course readings throughout the entire paper. The paper must be modeled around a thesis sentence that is introduced in the first few sentences of the paper. Every sentence in the paper should build on that thesis statement, be specific/not vague, and should not be repetitive or tangential. An example thesis sentence can be found in the Feminist Topic Sample Proposal provided by your instructor in Canvas. Next, similar to your proposal do not assume your reader is familiar with any of your sources; students should describe each source to their reader. Students should carefully consider and implement the detailed comments provided by your instructor for your Feminist Topic Proposal when developing this paper. Taking into consideration the comments is highly important to be successful on this assignment.
GRADING RUBRIC
Excellent Good Poor YOUR PERFORMANCE
Topic’s relation to the overall course content The topic to be added to the syllabus relates very well to our class and will enrich it tremendously
The topic to be added to the syllabus relates somewhat to our class The topic does not relate well to the class
Student’s description of the topic
The student describes the topic in great depth and offers unique and highly persuasive points about the importance of the topic The student describes the topic well, but could also expand upon the topic to include more in depth analysis of it The student does not describe the topic in depth and/or does not use the full required length of the paper to describe the topic
Evidence provided from readings
The student supports their argument with in depth engagement with a variety of readings
The student partially supports their argument with evidence from readings The student does not use sufficient evidence from readings to support their argument
Knowledge of course content
The student shows exceptional and highly advanced knowledge of class materials, key class terms, and key class concepts
The student shows good knowledge of class materials, key class terms, and key class concepts The student shows marginal knowledge of class materials, key class terms, and key class concepts Writing style The student has eloquently formed sentences, strategic word choice, and grammatical excellence
The student demonstrates good writing approaches with room for improvement The student’s writing style lacks effective use of language and grammar and needs significant improvement FINAL EXAM
This is a cumulative open book open note writing assignment. The final exam contains a series of essay questions based on key terms and key concepts covered in the course. It is highly important that students carefully read all class readings throughout the semester as well as take notes on all of the instructor discussions to help prepare for the exam. The instructor will highlight key terms and key class concepts throughout the semester that may appear on the exam. In addition to insight offered by the instructor, students should use critical thinking while learning about the terms and concepts. It is highly suggested that prior to taking the test students create a word document that contains a list, summary, and analysis of theories, key concepts, and key terms covered in the course. The document should also contain a compiled list of compelling main points from readings with appropriate page numbers and author name/s for citation purposes. Since this is an open book and open note online exam students should perform exceptionally on the test and their answers should reflect that they have prepared considerably for the exam. The most successful exams will summarize diverse class readings’ main points, summarize key class concepts and key class terms, and offer your own original analysis about the readings, class concepts, and key terms.
STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES
Students who complete the course will be trained to and should be able to upon completion of the course:
Learn about multiple academic theories of sexual orientations
Understand the relationship between sexual orientation and identity
Understand the relationship between sexual orientation and individuals’ social ties
Learn about the effects of culture, time, and place on sexual orientation comprehensions and experiences
PROGRAM LEARNING OUTCOMES
HDEV 453 helps students develop skills in the following Human Development Program Learning Outcomes (PLOs):
Demonstrate core knowledge in biological, psychological, and socio-cultural aspects of human development
Demonstrate critical thinking ability by summarizing, comparing, synthesizing, and critiquing interdisciplinary human development perspectives
Demonstrate the ability to access information, design, and conduct individual and/or group research projects, and present them clearly, logically, and persuasively
Demonstrate the ability to identify and address problems by applying human development knowledge in diverse contexts.
Additional Helpful Information
Student Center for Academic Achievement
I am available to assist you with assignments and to help you improve your writing. Cal State East Bay also provides dynamic writing resources in the college’s student center where you can access assistance from trained writing tutors and counselors. Writing is a significant part of this course and the student center is a valuable resource to assist students. You can learn more about the center here:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/scaa/Plagiarism and Academic Dishonesty
Plagiarism is the unauthorized use of an author’s words or ideas. Students who paraphrase another person’s work or who directly quote an author must cite their source. Academic dishonesty includes plagiarism, falsification/fabrication, and/or cheating. You can learn more about these individual forms of academic misconduct below. Students are responsible for upholding the integrity of the instruction and the educational process. Students who commit academic dishonesty will receive a failing grade for that assignment.
https://www.csueastbay.edu/aps/academic-policies/academic-dishonesty.htmlEmail Responses
Your instructor usually will respond to emails within 48 hours Monday through Friday.
Late Assignment Policy
Makeup assignments are rarely approved. Late assignments will only be considered if discussed in advance with the instructor or in cases of emergency. Written proof will be required for medical emergencies.
Course Technology
If students have technical questions (for example how to log into Canvas, submit assignments, etc.) they should contact Student Support and Services. Here is Student Support and Services contact information and website with helpful content:
510-885-4152
stsc@csueastbay.eduhttps://www.csueastbay.edu/online/classes-and-academic-support/index.htmlAccessibility Services
Cal State East Bay strives to make all learning experiences as accessible as possible. If you anticipate or experience academic barriers based on having a disability please contact your instructor immediately. You can also register with the Accessibility Services to establish accommodations. After registering make arrangements with your instructor to discuss your accommodations in order to implement the accommodations in a timely fashion. You can find more information about Accessibility Services below:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/accessibility/
510-885-3868
as@csueastbay.edu
Gender-Based Violence Resources
This course acknowledges that gender based violence is a serious issue which colleges should address and prevent. If you or someone you know is or has been a victim of gender based violence you can find extensive resources below:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/advocacy-services/confidential-campus-advocate/resources.htmlhttps://www.csueastbay.edu/hr/title-ix/what-you-can-do.htmlhttps://www.csueastbay.edu/hr/title-ix/https://www.csueastbay.edu/advocacy-services/confidential-campus-advocate/LGBTQ+ Resources
A goal of this course is to produce a welcoming environment for people of all genders, sexes, sexualities, and identities. Your instructor will respect your request to address your preferred name and gender pronouns. Students in the class should likewise respect each other’s preferred pronouns and names. Beyond this course, you can also find LGBTQ+ resources below:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/diversity-inclusion/https://www.csueastbay.edu/diversity/affinity-groups/lgbtq+/pride-list.htmlhttps://eastbaypride.com/youth-2.htmlMental and Physical Wellbeing
If you experience physical illness or mental health challenges (for example, anxiety, depression, stressful life events, sleep deprivation, and/or loneliness/homesickness) you can contact Student Health and Counseling Services:
510-885-3735
https://www.csueastbay.edu/shcs/index.htmlIf you are experiencing immediate crisis you can text “Courage” to “741741.” Also, here is the number to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline: 1-800-273-8255
Drug and Alcohol Prevention and Intervention
If you or someone you know is experiencing hardship related to drugs and/or alcohol you can find support below:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/atod/community-resources/alameda-county.htmlStudent Food/Temporary Housing Assistance
Any student who has difficulty affording groceries or accessing sufficient food to eat or who lacks a safe and stable place to live can find support here:
https://www.csueastbay.edu/calfresh/index.htmlCourse Content and Safe Space
Most of the content that we will discuss in this class is politically charged and may impact us individually in personal and unexpected ways. While these conversations may be uncomfortable or challenging at times, students are expected to remain respectful of others and use discussions as a learning tool. Our class is designed to be an encouraging, respectful, and welcoming environment for all students in order to facilitate collective and productive learning. I welcome feedback and encourage students to speak with me privately about course materials or discussions that do not facilitate the environment I describe. We will strive collectively to create a safe space for intellectual dialogue while recognizing that we can never guarantee such a space. Participation in this course requires a mutual commitment to respect on the part of the instructor and students.
Overall, this course aims to create a healthy and insightful space where students can learn, grow, and individually and collectively progress.
WEEKLY SCHEDULE
Week 1: August 17-21Introduction to the Course
Enter our online course, familiarize yourself with its content, and watch the welcome/introduction video
Review the syllabus and make note note of important dates
Week 2: August 22-28Gender—A Social Construction
“Night to his Day:” The Social Construction of Gender, Judith Lorber
Sociology of Gender, Zuleyka Zevallos
Week 3: August 29-September 4Intersectionality and Identity
Intersectionality, Vivian May
Intersectionality, APA Style
Intersectionality Image 1
Intersectionality Image 2
Week 4: September 6-11 Family—A Socio-Political Institution
Satz, Debra. (2013). Feminist Perspectives on Reproduction and the Family. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Week 5: September 12-18 Heteronormativity and Homonormativity
MasterClass Staff. (2020) Understanding Heteronormativity with 6 Examples. MasterClass.
Kacere, Laura. (2015, Jan 24). Homonormativity 101: What it is and How It’s Hurting Our Movement. Everyday Feminism.Schilt, Kristen, and Westbrook, Laural. (2009). Doing Gender, Doing Heteronormativity: “Gender Normals,” Transgender People, and the Social Maintenance of Heterosexuality. Gender and Society, 23(4), 440-464.
Week 6: September 19-25Youth Socialization
Hetero-Romantic Love and Heterosexiness in Children’s G-Rated Films, Karin A. Martin and Emily Kazyak
The Doll TestThe Doll Test 2Week 7: September 26-October 2LGBTQ Youth
Human Rights Campaign Foundation. (2018). LGBTQ Youth Report. Human Rights Campaign Foundation.
Rupp, Leila, and Taylor, Verta. (2010). Straight Girls Kissing. Contexts, 9(3), 28-32.
Week 8: October 3-9Intersex and Constructing the Human Body
Cooky, Cheryl, and Dworkin, Shari. (2013). Policing the Boundaries of Sex: A Critical Examination of Gender Verification and the Caster Semenya Controversy. The Journal of Sex Research, 50(2), 103-111.
Vox. (2019). The Problem with Sex Testing in Sports. Vox.
Valentine, David, and Wilchins, Riki Anne. (1997). One Percent on the Burn Chart: Gender, Genitals, and Hermaphrodites with Attitude. Social Text, 52-53. 215-222.
Week 9: October 10-16Research Proposal Due
Review the Feminist Topic Proposal module in Canvas
FEMINIST TOPIC PROPOSAL
DUE OCTOBER 16
Week 10: October 17-23Reproductive Choice and Restrictions
Miller, Korin. (2022). What Does Overturning Roe v. Wade Mean? Everything To Know So Far About the Court’s Decision And Its Impact. Women’s Health.
Statement from the College of Charleston’s Women’s and Gender Studies Program Faculty Executive Committee and the Women’s Health Research Team on the June 24, 2022 SCOTUS Decision, Women’s and Gender Studies Program Faculty Executive Committee and the Women’s Health Research Team.
Smith, Andrea. (2005). Beyond Pro-Choice Versus Pro-Life: Women of Color and Reproductive Justice. NWSA Journal, 17(1), 119-140.
Week 11: October 24-30Violence Against Women
Statistics, NCADV
Victims of Sexual Violence: Statistics, RAINN
Facts and Figures: Ending Violence Against Women, UN Women
Do Universities Re-Victimize Survivors?, TEDx
CNN news videoFraternities and Rape on Campus, Patricia Yancey Martin and Robert Hummer
Week 12: October 31-November 6Beauty and Body Shaming
Lane Bryant commercialFeminist Consumerism and Fat Activists: A Comparative Study of Grassroots Activism and the Dove Real Beauty Campaign, Josée Johnston and Judith Taylor
‘A Way Outa No Way:’ Eating Problems Among African-American, Latina, and White Women, Becky Wangsgaard Thompson
Week 13: November 7-13Research Paper Due
Prepare your Feminist Topic Research Paper
FEMINIST TOPIC RESEARCH PAPER
DUE NOVEMBER 13
Week 14: November 14-20Disability and Motherhood
Brunet, Sam. (2020). Disability and Desirability Politics of Motherhood. An Undergraduate Journal of Disability Studies, 5(1), 25-35.
Week 15: November 21-27Fall Recess
No Assignments or readings due—enjoy your well-earned break
Week 16: November 28-December 4Final Exam Review
Review the Final Exam preparation module in Canvas
FINAL EXAMS DUE
DECEMBER 5
The Framing Effect and Hindsight Bias
The Framing Effect and Hindsight Bias
Student’s name
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The Framing Effect and Hindsight Bias
The purpose of the present study is to adequately and examine two biases. Firstly, is the framing effect by use of one set of Tversky and Kahneman’s (1981) framing questions and another set on hindsight bias by use of Slovic’s and Fischhoff’s (1977) foresight-hindsight questions. A determination for the relationship between these two biases is needed and thus be able to find out if the people are susceptible to the framing effect are also susceptible to the hindsight bias. In line with Tversky and Kahnerman, regarding the framing effect, it is predicted that the majority of the participants will be influenced by the different frames (i.e. positive vs negative) presented to them. Specifically, we predict that positive frames will prevent people from risking what they were certain to gain; while negative frames will lead to people risk-taking what they seem to perceive as a sure loss. In addition, it is also predicted that scores concerning people’s predictions of an approach outcome will be higher in the hindsight condition than in the foresight condition.
Conclusively both methods may seem similar but are not at all the same. Not only does their difference in opinion and meaning show this but also to do their effects on other human beings including experts, educators, and even analysts. Only by reviewing these two methods can we properly come up with means of analyzing how to deter ourselves against them and also find means of helping others from the influences of such bias nesses. An Example looks into these forms of bias will also give us a brief insight on how to better understand them and implement necessary measures to ensure that they are unproductive at best or even unusable in some instances to influence decisions or make improper unnecessary judgments in anything. If a reasonable counter means on bias nesses can be established, then a great many people might benefit.
Introduction
Decision-making is undoubtedly an outcome of every human being. Some individuals make good outcomes on their decisions while other people’s decisions are unpredictable since they may be affected by uncertain factors. The quality of decision-making varies among individuals of different backgrounds and life choices. An important characteristic of decision-making is that, in situations of uncertainty, individuals predict the likelihood of a particular outcome (Kahneman et al., 1973)
Factors for proper decision-making include having prior knowledge, information about the subject or object, and the expected accuracy of the prediction. Specifically, decision-making under uncertainty involves information about what we already know, information about the specific person, object, and how confident one is about their prediction. Altogether, these factors impact how one makes decisions on a daily.
Past researches have shown that when individuals are making predictions about uncertain outcomes, there is greater emphasis placed on previous knowledge (Johnson, 1987). That is, when an individual is uncertain about the outcome of a decision, they are more likely to rely on previous information and heuristics. For example, if an individual is uncertain about whether their team is going to win or lose in the upcoming game, the individual is more likely to rely on previous performance to make their predictions (Kahneman et al., 1973). Although previous data may give guidance and insight this sort of biasness will end up being more than just harmful to the individual. Past data is in no way a prediction of future trends but how we choose to see such data will greatly depend on the individual presented with such information and data. Past research and data may also be fundamentally flawed and unusable so they are in no way at all meant to be a precursor to anything about the future.
The framing effect
This is often considered in how decisions are influenced by the way information is presented. How information is highlighted can be more or less attractive depending on what kind of features were used. Focusing on the way information is represented and not the information itself is how a decision of the framing effect occurs. This in turn makes them more attractive than options or information that are much better thus casting them in a less favorable light. A good enough example of this is an unwitting individual who unwisely chooses an absurd high-risk investment portfolio because their broker emphasized the great potential upside instead of the common downside.
By looking at the rules that make up intuitive judgments and an otherwise intuitive prediction Tversky and Kahnerman thus developed a means of using these rules to come with a normative principle of statistical prediction. Looking at the two classes of prediction we draw a kind of parallel into what the researchers were trying to show. Taking into consideration the categorical prediction we see a kind of nominal form e.g. elections and their winners. While a numerical prediction gives information in a numerical form e.g. stock indices for future forecasting and trends.
This type of system has considerable influence on public opinion, not to mention public affairs and other events that may in one way or another draw attention from the public if they are interpreted very differently to give an idea from a specific frame or point of view. Negative framing can even in certain conditions insure that even policies or ideas intended to help people do not in any way succeed to do so. A similar instance may occur in which policies and behaviors that have no value or purpose of helping the people may be popularized and thus greatly emphasized to give them a positive view among people. Climate change is a good enough contentious issue that has been scientifically conventionalized to be a public opinion rather than a scientific fact.
Since most choices are influenced by options, the frame of such a format is heavily reliant on emphasis, wordings, and reference points. Common framing gets their attention to either the positive gain or the negative loss associated with a given option. Susceptibility to this sort of framing is a given because of our need to tend to avoid loss.
A prospect theory has been introduced in that a particular loss is shown to be of significance and thus more worthy of an avoiding than an equivalent gain. A sure gain is most likely preferred to a probable one and a probable loss is preferred to a sure loss. To ensure we do not get straight losses we thus look for options and information with certain gains. The particular framing of something all but guarantees us that there is a certainty that something will bring either gain or loss. Hence we find it attractive when the positive features of any option are highlighted instead of negative ones.
Since our minds have great difficulty in processing certain information especially if the message is something that is complex and thus takes time and a lot of energy our mind irrevocably uses shortcuts also termed as heuristics. A heuristic is our brain’s tendency to use information that comes to mind more quickly and easily when making decisions about the future. This time of instance is even more prevalent in older individuals due to their limited cognitive resources and hence may favor information presented in a way that is easily accessible to them. Thus our need to want information framed easily and logically create an easy enough way in which the framing is quite useful and efficient to use. A need to want information framed in an elicit and quick manner often is designed to elicit an emotional response. Further research shows us that framing is always designed to elicit emotional appeals and thus in hindsight can be designed to have specific emotional reactions. A good enough example to show this scenario is in how we elect key candidates to positions of power, Individuals who give an emotional inspirational speech are more likely to get elected than other individuals who are of the same platform but rather are represented in a dreary report.
The framing is not at all either good or evil but it can greatly affect information to be either positive or negative. Its ability to impair judgment by further limiting our ability on decision making is an element that cannot be ignored since at times it greatly sheds a positive light on poor information or lesser options. This in turn leads to overvaluing how something is said which is usually of more importance at times hence leading us to choose worse options that are more effectively framed regardless of how bad over better options or information that is framed badly. This at times is greatly seen and held to be true in the smaller decisions we make as consumers and citizens and also more significant decisions that we encounter and have to make in our own personal and professional life.
There is a need to learn what counts as effective bias and framing bias to properly understand what better options look like and what badly framed ones look like. Such an instance is mostly held in the instance where consumers or citizens have to deal with even more and better decisions we have to deal with in our personal and professional lives.
Although this biasness seems a bit unstoppable it can in actuality be harnessed for an advantage to us. By understanding how framing works we can easily find ways in how we frame our ideas and thoughts and thus be more effective in our day-to-day life tasks by framing our thoughts and ideas in a way that is easily understood by a large group of people. Even more effective training may allow us to leverage our point of view.
Hindsight bias
This phenomenon happens in instances where a person looks back at an event and believes they could have predicted the outcome. It is particularly noticeable in people who believe that they have a much better judgment than others. The key point here is that once we know the outcome it is much easier to construct any at all plausible explanation. Thus, this ensures we become more or less critical of the future when it comes to matters about our decisions which will, in turn, lead to poor decision-making in the future. A key example to illustrate here is when investors are often a lot of time-pressured on making perfect buying and selling stocks to sufficiently maximize the returns. This oftentimes leads to a kind of regret that when a loss is encoded and hence the thought that they saw it coming all along. This in turn leads them to the possibility that this was an inevitable outcome that they might have anticipated. Whatever likely option pans out convinces the investor that it was an option that they likely saw coming. This in turn allows investors to unknowingly make poor decisions going onwards with their life thus preventing any means of hindsight that may involve being able to make decisions beforehand such as keeping a kind of documented journal to allow investors to communicate later.
By use of three experiments, Slovic and Fischhoff were able to show the hindsight effects that occur when scientific results are further evaluated and thus a form of predictability. By reporting the outcomes of historical events the increased likelihood of that outcome occurring then becomes exponentially real. The ‘we knew it all along’ mentality that subjects adhere to tends to deepen them and they are believed even further. A reduction in the effectiveness of the hindsight research was properly noted when people were forced to consider how the research would otherwise turn out.
Hindsight bias is more involved than anything else since it revolves around revising the probability of an outcome after the fact. A complete over-exaggeration of knowing about a particular outcome is inevitable since after the inevitable outcomes happen individuals tend to over exaggerate. Such biases can be found in almost every single situation with the most notable being decision making and weather predictions. Since this type of bias is rooted in anchoring and overconfidence after an event at times occurs it is thus our use of knowledge after the outcome that is at times used for prior judgments of the outcome. Science also plays a fundamental aspect here whereby hindsight bias might not be solely tied to the ineffective processing of information but rather rooted in a kind of adaptive learning to help us survive in an evolutionary process. This fact is, even more, supported taking into consideration that our mind can only hold a limited amount of information, and thus as a means of updating previous knowledge the brain helps prevent memory loss and overload. Our ability to use and understand hindsight bias keenly shows just how comforting we found it to see that the world is predictable and thus in a way orderly. Hence in a lot of instances, we seek to see unpredictable events as predictable and thus have a positive view of ourselves and in essence use sense-making to create a story or narrative that will in all likelihood show that we knew a certain outcome.
There are various key examples to look into when it comes to hindsight bias such as: –
Financial bubbles are always the greatest examples of hindsight biases after their inevitable burst. The dot bubble in the late 1990s and the great recession of 2008 and an exceptional number of analysts and pundits demonstrated clearly and broadly how trivial events at times were harbingers of future financial trouble. Although they were right in one way or another other concurrent events reinforced the assumption that the inevitable boom time would never end. If such analysts had taken into account that a financial bubble is not easy to predict then they might have understood that it would be also easy to stop if it could have been predicted.
Entrepreneurs also do not seem immune to hindsight bias since according to some economists who stated on information gathered about past previous data that most entrepreneurs of failed startups acknowledged that their companies would fail but upon being asked again after they fail their only a majority acknowledged that they believed their start-up would be successful.
Businesses are not immune to hindsight biases since professionals and decision-makers assume because a strategy worked previously it will in fact in all likelihood keep on working. However, this narrative is completely a false condition since it does not take into account the ever-changing conditions of current times and the notion that since something worked well in the past it might as well work well in the present.
To avoid hindsight bias individuals such as investors should always be careful when evaluating their abilities to predict how current or future events will unfold and hence impact the future performance of securities and stocks. A journal might in some cases be necessary if a not amazing tool that easily helps keep a record of the various decision-making process and thus allow one to understand how key specific decisions were made, implemented, and thus finally concluded. Such a document would better help an individual to accurately reflect on a situation and thus see if they find themselves biased in any way.
Intrinsic evaluation is also another more effective approach as it helps investors make decisions on data-driven factors and not in any way personal ones. They are in many instances referring to the perception of a stock’s value based on all aspects of any business and hence may or may not coincide with the current market value.
Relationship between the framing effect and hindsight bias
Taking an example of decision making we can easily see how these two outcomes come into play. Taking note that we make cognitive decisions on a day to basis based on the type of possible outcomes we are presented we see that at some we are aware of the cognitive biases we impose to achieve such mundane tasks. Such tasks may often involve reasoning and emotion and thus in one way or another have instances that involve uncertainty and thus a rational or irrational way of looking at things. Cognitive biases imply a means of subconscious error as a result of thought misinterpretation of knowledge and its eventual impact on accuracy, rationality to give a proper response, and judgment.
They make it hard for people to exchange accurate information and or derive truths and hence end up distorting our critical reading which ends up leading to acting on misconception or misinformation that can be damaging to others. In the end, it causes us to avoid information that may be unwelcome or uncomfortable rather than the eventual investigation that could lead us to a more accurate outcome.
To fully understand how such bias affects society as a whole we need to further implement measures to see where how exactly they have been used over time. Effectively doing this is the only thing that helps us see how we may end up avoiding such bias or even better yet how we may use them ourselves to effectively send out key messages and pass well-meaning positive reforms to individuals who will greatly benefit from them. Although more data and information on bias is required it is easy to see just how the little data that there is effective and use to a small range of people to effectively enact meaningful change that is detrimental to helping everyone and thus ensuring everyone benefit.
Conclusion
By looking into the two forms of biasness’s we conclude that human beings have all sorts of ways to look at biasness as both a positive and negative influence. It seems that business is only effective to key individuals based on how well a message is targeted to them. Both framing and hindsight bias elicit an emotional response to be effective in either marketing or selling the key underlining message required.
Biasness may be positive or negative depending on who exactly is using it, A form of positive bias nesses is its implementation in sending out key messages that are used to help individuals make informed decisions and better choices with what they know. A case of negative biases is when it is used for specific gains that are most termed as either incentive for another individual to gain from another person’s loss. Manufacturing companies and major businesses have such incentives and thus are the biggest culprit when it comes to using this type of bias in a completely unproductive and useless way.
To adequately ensure that such biases are not used against well-intentioned people it is appropriate that as many people as possible understand how bias work and just how they can easily be able to recognize any form of bias to easily find ways to avoid them in their entirety if not use them to their advantage.
Reference
Henriksen, K., & Kaplan, H. (2003). Hindsight bias, outcome knowledge, and adaptive learning. BMJ Quality & Safety, 12(suppl 2), ii46-ii50.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological review, 80(4), 237.
Knoll, M. A., & Arkes, H. R. (2017). The effects of expertise on the hindsight bias. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(2), 389-399.
Slovic, P., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). On the psychology of experimental surprises. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3(4), 544.