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Decision Analysis. The analysis is all about analyzing the current workflow with analyzing the improvement things in total
Decision Analysis
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Institution
Date
Evaluation Summary
The analysis is all about analyzing the current workflow with analyzing the improvement things in total. There are number of things which have been considered in this scenario and Shuzworld has to consider the same in total for enhancing the situation and productivity of the company with efficacy.
Enhance the current level of workflow
The essence of continuous growth as well as advancement is mainly some of the considerable aspects from the perspective of the company, which is uniformly favorable for the Shuzworld. The layout of the production line is comprised on eight different locations, the work of employees, dedicated to accomplish things, like, extremely resistant work boot (RWWC) requirements. The company has got the availability of resources through which they can enhance their growth as well as business process, by keep considering and maintaining the competency of their production units. It is highly recommended that the total amount which is used to operating the working stations should be carried to its lowest level, as it should be five, instead of 8. Secondly, it is quiet significant to ensure that the actual assembly line goods is manufacturing, and decreased slightly between the productions
The total production time for the boot is mentioned below,
The projects A, D and H having a large project allocation of time, relative to any other type, which will reduce the amount of items associated with G. It is recommended for Shuzworld to reduce the level of their working stations from level 8 to the 5, and it is verified from the tables and diagrams given below:
The recommendations which are proposed to reduce the numbers of working stations from the level 8 down to 5 which is basically a provision of module tool called balancing which is taken into consideration for minimizing the total number of working stations are mentioned below:
Workstation A
Workstation B and C
Workstation D
Workstation combined of E, F, and G
5. Workstation H
After evaluating the above working, it is obvious that the production cycle time is 46 minutes per cycle, when eight stations; it will go to the level of the workstation 50 to the level 5. Reduced down to the level of the workstation, evidently increases the competency and reflect positive effects over the workflow of Shuzworld, particularly from 92% as a whole and the total average delay in this particular case would be stood at 8%
It is necessary to choose a perfect decision-making tool and for this, the Balanced Module tool is the most favorable tool for this purpose. Behind choosing this particular module reason is that it will augment the productivity of the company to it greater extent, and because of this particular model, the nature of the allocation and division of work between the workforces would certainly be easy enough. By utilizing this specific module, the important task is to correct the sequence, and by working down from 8 positions to 5, a great influence over the production, because it will fall to 92% level. In addition to balancing module, “Line balancing component is used to display a graph showing the change on the floor in all of the operations.
Line balancing is such a module that integrated the statistics from single or several plans. Multiple parts can be balanced on the same line. Based on the times, the Line Balancing module retrieves all operations and their associated elements and displays a Chart showing the amount of time each part spends at each workstation. The Line Balancing Module lets you evaluate multiple analyses to predict the impact before implementing changes on the floor. Applied Logistics supports your lean manufacturing initiatives
Analysis of the initial and follow-up costs
In order to improve the efficiency of the workers against reduced cost of production, it will be important to undertake a critical analysis of the data provided. This can be achieved through a revisit of the overall production cost schedule. The integration of sandals line from the point of view of production as well as operations will be extremely important and with the new sandal line, it would be considerably amplified, called a “Maui Sandal”. And the area of focus which is requires in this specific case is the scheduling the timing of production. As reported the Shuzworld’s case, it will need something with a new line of shoes for about 1,000 hours of labor on the basis of a certain historical value generated. The standard cost of labor in the U.S is $ 1.08, and the learning curve is inclined downward by 80%. Moreover, the following month, and batches of sandals are given below:
left-2540From the above working, it is quite clear that the lots scandal increased 100 percent per month and this would be followed by the coming 3 months as a whole. The total amount of all these four months batch is “50.” The learning curve is the amount of time required for different types and through the implementation of the total of 3,737 for the $ 1.08 level, labor costs are mixed. The total budget comes to about $ 4,036 level. The Costs, working hours and per month starting in the associated table and graph formats are mentioned below:
Learning curve
It is evident that the cost of production is increasing with the increase in labour hours but at a relatively lower rate. This simply means that learning curve indicates that with time workers become more efficient and reduces the overall cost.
It is clear that the association of labor cost would be the highest in the 4th month of operation, in which the total sandals production was 20. After critically examine the statistical data, the first group of sandals acquire large amount of working hours reveal 1,000 while the additional along with the production to reduce this amount to only 283.83 hours this is consequently a cost-effective for production costs. The more production of a product the more decreased amount of hours needed to produce the product. By extending the production timeline over the trial of four months there will be increased profits and revenue while decreased cost of manufacturing especially seasonally. Excel spreadsheet view by specific learning curve tab formaldehyde Windows module is necessary to calculate all the data for that specific product. With module “POM” in the name will be used for the same analysis, the calculation of the total of all the data of this particular product. And inversely proportional to the amount of hours of production cost, with a high production took several hours to reduce the amount of each point. In the review of statistical data, the maximum amount is $ 1,000 the first sandals labor time required, further reducing production continues along this amount to only 283.83 hours this is a cost-effective labor costs accordingly. The more production of a product the more decreased amount of hours needed to produce the product. By extending the production timeline over the trial of four months there will be increased profits and revenue while decreased cost of manufacturing especially seasonally. By reviewing the excel spreadsheet specific to the tab of learning curves the module in POM for Windows was needed in order to calculate all the data for this particular product. This particular choice of tool accurately reflects the information as it calculates the data on the coefficient of the 80% model.
Bibliography
Johnston, R. (2013). Operations Management. New York: Pearson Education, Limited.
Schneider, M. (2010). Operations Management: Theory and Practice. Miami: Springer.
Decision Analysis answers
Decision Theory
Student’s Name
Institution Affiliation
Self-Test
A
A
A
A
C
B
C
A
Question 17
What type of decision is Ken facing?*Decision under uncertainty
What decision criterion should he use?*Maximax
What alternative is best*He should choose Sub 100, since it has the best possible outcome.
Question 18
Ken is using maximax criterion and should select sub 100 as it has the maximum payoff of $300000.
As Bob is pessimistic, He should use Maximin criterion. Equipment Favourable Mkt($) Unfavourable Mkt($) Row minimum
Sub 100 $ 300,000.00 $ (200,000.00) $ (200,000.00)
Oiler J $ 250,000.00 $ (100,000.00) $ (100,000.00)
Texan $ 75,000.00 $ (18,000.00) $ (18,000.00)
Maximin $ (18,000.00)
Using Maximin criterion, Bob would select Texan as worst payoff for this alternative
is better than the worst payoffs of other alternatives
Question 20
SOLUTION: (a) What decision would maximize expected profits? To decide the best alternative, we need to calculate EMV for each alternative as shown below.
STATE OF NATURE EMV DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Stock Market 80,000 -20,000 30000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 25000 CDs 23,000 23,000 23000 Probability 0.5 0.5 Maximum EMV 30000 As the EMV is maximum for Stock market, Mickey should invest in the Stock market.
(b) What is the maximum amount that should be paid for perfect forecast of the economy?
Expected Value for Perfect information (EVPI) is the amount that should be paid for perfect forecast of the economy.
EVPI = EV with perfect information – Maximum EMV EV with Perfect information = Best payoff for first state of nature
*Probability of the 1st state of nature +Best payoff for second state of nature
*Probability of the 2nd state of nature
EV with PI 51500 EVPI $ 21,500 Thus, the maximum amount that should be paid is $21,500
Question 24
SOLUTIONS (a) Develop an opportunity loss table. PROFIT ($) STRONG FAIR POOR MARKET MARKET MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,000 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0 Opportunity loss Table STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 0 19,000 310,000 Medium-sized facility 250,000 0 100,000 Small facility 350,000 29,000 32,000 No facility 550,000 129,000 0 (b) What is the minimax regret decision? Opportunity loss Table
STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET MAXIMUM REGRET
Large facility 0 19,000 310,000 310,000
Medium-sized facility 250,000 0 100,000 250,000
Small facility 350,000 29,000 32,000 350,000
No facility 550,000 129,000 0 550,000
Minimax regret 250,000
Minimax regret decision is to build Medium-sized facility.
Question 29
Payoff
266700800100120967513239752419350295275264795012382526860504095753048000123825306705066675054292592392512096754095751219200409575
0.5 $100,000
favourable market Construct Clinic $30,000 Unfavorable market 0.5 ($40,000)
EMV $30,000 $0 Do nothing $0
EMV for node 1(Construct clinic) = 0.5*100000 +0.5*(-40,000) = $30,000 EMV for do nothing=$0 The EMV for tree is maximum of the two, thus $30,000 As, EMV is highest for the alternative of construct a clinic, the medical professionals should construct the clinic.
Reference
Turskis, Z., & Zavadskas, E. K. (2011). Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods in economics: an overview. Technological and economic development of economy, (2), 397-427.
Deception In The Investigative Process
Deception In The Investigative Process
Contents
TOC o “1-3” h z u HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058423” Ethics and Lying to Get the Truth PAGEREF _Toc377058423 h 1
HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058424” Do Ends Justify the Means? PAGEREF _Toc377058424 h 2
HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058425” Conflict between Code of Ethics and Law Enforcement Practices PAGEREF _Toc377058425 h 3
HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058426” Physical Behavior and Non-Verbal Communication in Detecting Deception PAGEREF _Toc377058426 h 5
HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058427” Conclusion PAGEREF _Toc377058427 h 5
HYPERLINK l “_Toc377058428” References PAGEREF _Toc377058428 h 6
Ethics and Lying to Get the TruthDeception refers to an act of deliberately misleading a person in order to achieve a premeditated intention. In criminal justice procedures, deception is an investigative tool that is used prevalently by investigating officers. Deception is mainly used in the detecting process where alleged criminals are deliberately misled to give up information that is pertinent to the crime before the case is presented in court. There are other forms of psychological persuasion for information which include seduction, manipulation, and all other means of non-violent coercion through the use of what is generally referred to as “white lies.” An ethical question that arises from this sanctioned use deception is whether it is morally right to lie in the search for truth.
The question can be approached from two perspectives. One is from an ontological point of view which leans on a realistic justification for the use of deception on the basis of the good that will come out of it for the whole community. The second approach is from the more idealistic deontological perspective which is based on ideas by philosophers like Immanuel Kant who held that, “moral conduct means acting within a constraining framework of principles that are independent of consequential considerations” (Herman, 2006, p. 344). From this line of thinking it emerges that if lying is considered to be morally unacceptable, then it should not be used for any purpose regardless of what good it might bring.
From an ontological perspective, truth is an end that holds priority over the means used to achieve it. The close relationship between ontology and critical realism supports the premise that ultimate truth exists on such levels like scientific investigation but not morality. In this regard any pursuit of truth is justified regardless of its moral implication. Therefore if the objective is to arrive at an ultimate truth, then the use of lies is justified. A good example is the government’s duty to national security by eliminating existing and potential threats through investigative intelligence gathering. An ontological view maintains that covert intelligence, which is based deception techniques, is not only justified but necessary in ensuring national security (Pfaff, 2006, p. 4). This implies that in pursuit of legitimate information, nothing is off-limits, including matters to do with moral justification.
An opposing view is held by deontologists who are considered to be moral absolutists. From a deontologist perspective, the act of lying is wrong no matter how positive its consequences might be. According to Immanuel Kant, goodwill is the only absolutely good thing therefore the moral value of an action is judged by the will of whoever is doing it. If the action is performed under a negative maxim then it is wrong. Starting out by stating that “I shall lie to get the truth” is morally wrong regardless of whether the truth being sought is arrived at. Lying is accorded similar treatment with absolute maxims like “thou shalt not kill.” Kantian philosophy is based on “categorical imperatives” that are absolute since they value human dignity and treat people as ends in themselves. It is an idealism rooted on the universal Golden Rule that requires everyone to treat others as he or she would expect to be treated.
Do Ends Justify the Means?The argument on ethical implications of lying to get the truth can be taken a step further by asking whether the end really justify the means. The deontologists hold that any moral action must consider itself not only as a principle but as an end too. A good society should seek justice for all, therefore employing unjust means works against the end it seeks to serve. It is unethical to lie in pursuit of a good end like seeking for information. It would be like trying to construct a good house using wrong or inferior materials.
Deontologist emphasize on giving a closer examination of the perceived good end in before attempting to justify the means. Of great concern should be how the bad means affect the end. The use of lies to get truth does not produce a genuine response but one that is subject to the lie. Therefore a morally wrong means ultimately affects the end negatively. A case in point is in power politics games or in war where success determines the justification of the means used to achieve it. This is an ontological approach that pays very little or no concern at all to morality. Means used in this perspective are measured by their expediency which is a position that contrasts deontological ethics where expediency and moral justification are two different aspects.
It is quite obvious that anyone who violates his or her moral code in pursuit of a goal, no matter how good that goal is, takes a downward path of moral degradation. This is because after the first time, adopting unethical techniques like lying to find a truth becomes a habit in which the stakes are raised to a situation where any rule can be bent or broken. The problem lies in where this chain of logic stops. Invading a foreign country can not be justified on national security grounds or on the pretext that the invasion is the best thing for that country’s citizens, however true or false the claims may be.
Conflict between Code of Ethics and Law Enforcement PracticesAs professionals, law enforcement officers are expected to provide a service that benefits the society. In this regard, ethics and ethical standards pertaining to “doing the right thing at the right time in the right way and for the right reason” are important aspects in the practice (Hansen, 1973, p. 46). It is for this reason that the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) came up with a code of ethics in 1957, and later updated in October 1991, to govern the conduct of law enforcement officers. These officers are expected to follow the values and norms of the society and exemplify respect for the law and ethical behavior. Therefore law enforcement officers must lead the society in upholding social values and norms by living by the code. Law enforcement code of ethics works together with the police code of ethics by providing guidelines on how to act with impartiality, discretion, integrity and professional image at all times. Thus law enforcement agencies do not operate in a moral vacuum. However, at a practical level application of ethics in this field is not a black and white issue.
The conflict between ethics and law enforcement practices occurs when rules limit police conduct during investigation making the officers resort unethical practices. The irony is in the fact that when use of coercion is restricted, there is an increase in the use of deception. Deception occurs in the form Miranda admonitions, misrepresentation of the offence and its seriousness, false promises, and fabricated evidence. From an ontological perspective, deception is an effective tool because it can reach to the conscience of the suspect while he or she has a sense of right and wrong. It makes the work of the interrogator easier in uncovering the motive behind the crime. The conflict is further emphasized by the courts which, in as much as they do not openly support deception, they do not prohibit it either.
From a deontological perspective, deception is retrogressive because when it is used on an uncooperative suspect who is unwilling to divulge information, the investigator might be inclined to delve deeper and deeper into a tangle of lies until he or she crosses the line between legality and illegality. This is one of the reasons why defense attorneys often have to establish whether the investigator lied in the course of the investigation. The deontological imperative that lying is wrong pits investigation and interrogation practices in conflict with ethics for law enforcement officers. Maintaining ethical standards therefore acts as a limitation to efficiency in investigations.
Physical Behavior and Non-Verbal Communication in Detecting DeceptionDeception can be detected in non-verbal communication and physical behavior. The art of detecting non-verbal deception is often used by police and security officers in interrogating suspects. In detecting deception through body language on evaluates changes in physical expression which will be limited and stiff with very little hand motions when a person is lying. Avoiding eye contact has often been the easiest way to tell when a person is lying. Other body motions that indicate lying include touching face, throat, and mouth with the hands and scratching motions on the nose, behind the ear, and across the head. When the timing and duration of gestures and emotions is longer than normal, the person is lying.
ConclusionDeception and the use of lies have no place in law enforcement. It is undeniable that ethical concerns are integral in law enforcement practices especially in a liberal democracy. For interrogative and other investigative practices to be justified, they must subscribe to ethical standards that not only represent the goals of their profession but also adhere to the moral values of the community. The words of former CIA director Stansfield Turner put it more accurately when he states, “There is one overall test of the ethics of human intelligence activities. That is whether those approving them feel they could defend their actions before the public if the actions became public” (Quinlan, 2007, p. 2).
ReferencesHansen, D. (1973). Police ethics. Chicago, IL: Charles C. Thomas.
Herman, Michael. (2006). Intelligence Power in Peace and War. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press.
Pfaff, T. (2006). Bungee jumping off the moral highground: Ethics of espionage in the modernage. In Ethics of Spying: A Reader for the Intelligence Professional. Jan Goldman (ed.).Maryland: The Scarecrow Press, Inc. 3-56.
Quinlan, M. (2007). Just intelligence: prolegomena to an ethical theory. Intelligence andNational Security. 22(1), 2-11.