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Analysis of Water Temperature Data
Analysis of Water Temperature Data
at
Woods Hole, Massachusetts
We are exploring the possibility of Climate Change and possible changes in the Average Water Temperature at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Massachusetts. The data is a listing of daily water temperatures at the site taken in March of each year.
The temperatures cover the years from 1893 to 2009. The listing is complete for every year from 1966 through 2009. 1893 has only one data point (3/31), 1894 is complete, there are no listings for 1895-1897, 1899 is complete, 1900 is missing 3/31, 1901 has only 3/31, 1902 is missing, 1903 is missing 3/31, no data for 1904-1963, 1964 is missing 3/6, 3/7, 3/13, 3/14, 3/20, 3/21, and 3/28, and lastly 1965 is missing 3/5, 3/12, 3/19, 3/26, 3/31.
In looking at the total data set we have the following summary statistics for the mean of each March for which we have data:
Summary statistics:
Column n Mean Variance Std. Dev. Std. Err. Median Range Min Max Q1 Q3 IQR
Avg Temp 52 36.825577 4.253629 2.0624328 0.28600797 36.825 8.42 32 40.42 35.59 38.575 2.985
Note the mean temperature in Degrees Fahrenheit is 36.83 rounded to two decimal places, with a standard deviation of 2.06 degrees and a standard error of the mean of 0.29 degrees. Our sample size is n = 52. We have 52 years of March temperatures in our data set (approximately 1500 data points) with the gaps as listed. For this analysis we are using only the means of the March temperatures for each given year.
115252525908000The distribution of the entire data set is approximately normal as shown by the Histogram below:
Further analysis shows using a Q-Q plot test for normality yields the following graph, showing the data to be approximately normally distributed
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The confidence interval for the mean at the 95% level of confidence is (36.75, 36.91)
EMBED Equation.3
EMBED Equation.3
The CI for the mean at the 99% level of confidence is (36.27, 37.39)
The confidence interval for the variance at the 95% level of confidence is (.058, 0.129)
EMBED Equation.3
Binomial Analysis:
The confidence interval for the probability of EMBED Equation.3 being greater than 36.91 F (the upper limit of our confidence interval for the mean at the 95% level of confidence) at the 95% level of confidence is (0.3073, 0.5773).
Taking the probability of the average temperature of any given March being a greater than 36.91 degrees Fahrenheit is 23 out of 52 or EMBED Equation.3 with EMBED Equation.3
Note: We are using the normal distribution to approximate the Binomial as EMBED Equation.3 and the data appears to be approximately normally distributed.
EMBED Equation.3
EMBED Equation.3
Hypothesis :
If we have an increase of Water Temperature as a result of climate change we should be able to see a difference in current temperatures as compared to the entire data set.
We claim that the current mean of the water temperatures is greater than the mean of the total data set.
Comparing the last ten years (2000 to 2009) of temperature data to the total data set we look at the mean of each. First we need the statistics for the last ten year period
Summary Statistics for the ten year period 2000-2009 inclusive are:
Summary statistics: (years 2000-2009)
Column n Mean Variance Std. Dev. Std. Err. Median Range Min Max Q1 Q3 Sum IQR
2000-09 Avg Temps 10 37.173 5.5649123 2.3590066 0.7459834 36.365 6.39 33.88 40.27 35.81 39.77 371.73 3.96
95% Confidence Interval for mean – 2000-2009 – (35.71, 38.64)
Boxplots comparing the two data sets, temperature for the years of 2000 to 2009 inclusive as compared to the total data set, is inconclusive.
1456690-6985
Comparing the temperatures of the last 10 years of data to the total data set and a confidence level of 95% we have the following.
Hypothesis testing comparing the temperatures of the last 10 years of data to the total data set and a confidence level of 95% we have the following:
EMBED Equation.3
At an EMBED Equation.3 there is not enough evidence to support the claim that Water temperatures at Woods Hole have risen over the previous 52 years
From a Different perspective:
Taking a different approach we divided our data set into two subsets, the first ten years of data and the last ten years of data (previously examined). We might be able to see a significant difference in the two time periods. The claim is that the last ten years of March average temperatures will have mean temperatures higher to the first ten years of March average temperature data
The summary statistics for the first ten years (<1965) of data are listed below
Summary statistics – years < 1968:
Column n Mean Variance Std. Dev. Std. Err. Median Range Min Max Q1 Q3 Sum IQR
Last 10 Yrs 10 35.21 6.1235776 2.4745865 0.78253293 35.01 7.23 32 39.23 33.42 37.16 352.1 3.74
95% CI for Mean – years < 1968- (33.68, 36.74)
169164012446000
Boxplots of the data sets:
Comparing that with the last ten years, 2000-2009, given earlier and doing a two sample t test of the hypothesis as follows:
EMBED Equation.3
At an EMBED Equation.3 there is enough evidence to support the claim that Water Temperatures at Woods Hole are higher in the time period of 2000-2009 than they were in the 10 years prior to 1968
Proportional Analysis:
Looking at the proportion of the temperatures greater than 36.93 (the upper limit for the CI of the mean at a 99% confidence level)
Total Data set (all years) EMBED Equation.3
The first ten years (<1968) EMBED Equation.3
The last ten years (2000-2009) EMBED Equation.3
A difference of 0.10 between the first and last ten year data sets, but both are less than the total data set proportion.
Regression Analysis:
Looking further we did a scatter plot of temperature and years with the “x” value (horizontal axis) the years and the “y” value the average March temperatures.
-9525302895
meter Estimate
Intercept -16.100054
Slope 0.026778493
The relationship shows a slight positive correlation with a slope of 0.0268 degrees per year over the full sample.
The first ten years of samples has a slope of 0.163484 for this same linear relationship
0177800
Parameter Estimate
Intercept -0.25629535
Slope 0.163484
The last ten years of samples has a slope of 0.0367 for this same linear relationship
200025170180
Parameter Estimate
Intercept -36.325333
Slope 0.036666665
Comparing the slopes we can see that the first ten years have a steeper slope (0.166) than that of the last ten years (0.037) which is larger than the slope for the complete data set (0.268). Further analysis show that taking further 10 year samples between the first and last 10 groupings we have two 10 year samples with negative slop and one with a positive slope.
-0.02674 1999-1990
0.505353 1989-1980
-0.20369 1979-1970
There is a pattern of ten years of positive slope then 10 years of negative slope followed by ten years of positive slope then again 10 years of negative slope and our last ten year cycle with positive slope. The periods of increase have been larger or of greater magnitude than the periods of decrease.
Summary and Conclusions:
Mean and Confidence Intervals:
Blue: Our total data set has a mean Water Temperature of 36.830 and a 95% CI of (36.27, 37.39)
Red: The first ten year sample has a mean Water Temperature of35.210 and a 95% CI of (33.68, 36.74)
Green: The last ten year sample has a mean Water Temperature of 37.170 and a 95% CI of (35.71, 38.64)
Below are these values graphed. Note the overlap for the Blue and green data and Less overlap for the Red and blue or the Red and Green Data.
2047875-1397000Boxplots for all three data sets:
Hypothesis Test Results:
Mean of last ten years (2000-2009) against total data set:
EMBED Equation.3
Mean of last ten years (2000-2009) against first ten years ( <1968)
EMBED Equation.3
Regression analysis:
Slopes or Rate of change:
Slope Time Period
0.037 2000-2009
-0.02674 1999-1990
0.505353 1989-1980
-0.20369 1979-1970
.166 < 1968
0.268 Total Data
Conclusions:
Overall we see a continuous increase in Water Temperature from the start of the data to the end of March 2009, although the increase is very slight it is consistent for the time period.
The first ten years of data seems significantly lower than the rest of the data set but with a significantly steeper rate of change or slope. Not having data earlier than 1898 it could be a warming period after some event that lowered temperatures and now is recovering.
It is significant that over the complete data set the most recent 10 year period is not significantly (at an EMBED Equation.3 of 0.050) different than the total data set.
We seem to be experiencing a slow gradual increase in Water Temperatures at Woods Hole but the rate of change for the most recent ten year period is less than the mean of the total data set. Is the increase in Temperatures slowing down? Also noted is the trend that the rate of change switches from increasing to decreasing every ten years although the long term net is positive but that net positive includes the significantly larger positive rate of change for the first 10 years of data.
It seems clear that the mean Water Temperatures at Woods Hole have increased over the previous 50 years but the rate of that increase is by no means constant nor is it accelerating.
Analysis of views concerning utilitarianism
Utilitarianism
Many philosophers have had their thoughts on utilitarianism be known. According to this thought, happiness occurs when it is experienced in great numbers. This approach is admirable in matters concerning happiness. It is often referred as being a response or a stimulus approach. Its main focus lies on pain and pleasure, as well as associations, which are either positive or negative. It is through punishment and praise that the latter occurs (Moore, 2006).
This paper seeks to give an analysis on the different views, which exist, concerning utilitarianism according to various philosophers.
Analysis of views concerning utilitarianism
People associate Peter Singer with being a modern utilitarian. This is because he is known for matters, which concern animals and human beings. Many of the activities he engages in include issues on poverty, abortion, animal rights, among others. In turn, he has received a lot of condemnation and praise as well. This is the reason why he is not like other thinkers in the academic field. According to Singer, the consequences of actions are the ones, which are judged (Stuart, 2002).
On the other hand, two approaches, which are distinct, exist concerning moral theories, according to John Mill. They are the inductive and intuitive schools. The approaches are similar in that there is a belief of a normative, which is high as well as single. If happiness is promoted, then actions are deemed as being right. Also, if happiness is not achieved, the action is dimmed as being wrong. The latter is the difference between the approaches used by Singer and by Mill. Sensual pleasure and intellectual are used to describe happiness according to Mill. Human beings prefer pleasures, which are intellectual, because of their dignity and this is opposed to pleasures, which are sensual (Moore, 2006). The process of an action’s consequences being assessed is known as the utility principle. Agents such as character traits and motives are not extremely vital. In order for moral principles, which are secondary to be generated, the utility principle must exist. In turn, it ensures that happiness is promoted. It is as a result of secondary principles that human beings are judged. When people are faced with dilemmas of a moral nature, they should obtain help through the utility principle. The latter only applies when there is conflict between two principles of a secondary nature.
Most people, who criticize utilitarianism, believe that actions, which have consequences do not relate to morality. According to them, justice is a key concern. Mill equates utilitarianism to justice. He goes further to use the explanation of utility to be the same as that of justice. This is his main argument in matters concerning the negative aspects of utilitarianism (Robinson & Groves, 2003). The counter arguments, which are offered by Mill, are two. Justice notions are due to moral elements that are governed by social utility. In ‘notion of Justice’ rights violation and punishment are present. Social Empathy that is collective, as well as moral components brings the components of revenge. All the different elements have their origins from utility. People are secure and protected because of social utility. Lastly, the other argument given by Mill is that ambiguity occurs due to justice and in turn, justice becomes foundational. Justice is associated with matters in society such as taxation, and wealth distribution. Solution to disputes will occur if utility is implemented. Also, justice should not be ignored as it is extremely genuine.
Barnard Williams also has his own views concerning utilitarianism. According to him, happiness is related to love as compared to numbers. Sentiments should not be involved in matters related to utilitarianism, as they bring about problems. There are implications of a personal nature when people want to obtain happiness. There should not be standards, which are universal concerning what should be wrong or right (Stuart, 2002). According to him the problems, which are associated with utilitarianism, are that it is impractical, insufficient, impossible, as well as being distasteful. Thus, it is possible to claim that Singer is justified in his arguments. They concern what gives human being happiness at the expense of other things. This means that people who live in American are in society, which is extremely individualistic .Most people are concerned about their own issues at the expense of others.
Despite agreeing with the arguments presented by Singer, there are certain limitations. It is not easy to give up ones possessions, so that others can benefit. Even if a person’s life will be saved, it is impractical to do so. Happiness should exist for everyone, no one should benefit while others suffer (Robinson & Groves, 2003). People who do not give all their wealth to charity are still considered as being moral. In accordance to Singer’s philosophies, they are not practical as human nature cannot allow. No one has the right to call others selfish, as people have been brought up differently. Singer is concerned with matters that will benefit everyone in society, which might have many repercussions. In conclusion, the philosophies on utilitarianism should be well thought off as they have different interpretations.
References
Moore, W. (2006).Philosophy As a Humanistic Discipline. New York: Princeton University Press.
Robinson, Dave. & Groves, Judy. (2003). Introducing Political Philosophy. New York: Icon Books
Stuart, Mill. (2002). A System of Logic. Honolulu: University Press of the Pacific.
Analysis of Thomas Cooks Marketing objectives and strategy
Analysis of Thomas Cook ‘s Marketing objectives and strategy
Name:
Professor
Institution
Course:
Date:
Marketing objectives and strategy
It should be known that other than advertising, Thomas Cook should come up with marketing strategies and objectives. This will play a vital role in influencing tourists to visit Morocco through the help of the services provided by Thomas Cook. When coming up with the marketing program, it should be one that is easily understood, in order to obtain advantages that exist at the market place. Therefore, various techniques and strategies should focus upon then the best chosen method. The result is that Thomas Cook will attract a new customer base as well as have customers who are loyal. Also, it will be possible to ensure that the bottom line is not affected as there are usually quite a number of market shifts (Thomas Cook, 2012).
The marketing objectives for Thomas cook are as many and will assist it in realizing its goals. They include;
To introduce a new form of tourism to its customers, and in this case is desert tourism.
To promote the various tourist attractions that exists in Morocco, such as sandy beaches, cuisine and historical sites.
Thomas Cook seeks to establish itself in Morocco as a leading European tour company.
To promote high standards of customer satisfaction in Morocco as well as other tourist destinations.
To penetrate the Dutch market that has a high potential for frequent travelers to Morocco.
As part of the marketing plan, Thomas Cook should come up with a strategy that is both long term and short term. The tourism sector is highly competitive, and thus it is essential that Thomas Cook comes up with a strategy that ensures that it meets its objectives (Thomas Cook, 2012).
To ensure that its customers to Morocco have a variety of packages that are cost effective.
To have a budget that can fully cater for the advertising cost.
Working with the government of Morocco through a joint venture in an effort of branding Thomas Cook.
Marketing Mix Strategy
It is vital that when coming up with a marketing mix strategy, that the target market is well understood. This is in terms of their educational levels, income, location, sex, age, among others. By knowing what customers prefer it will be easy to market to them the destination being offered (Riege & Perry, 2000). For example, Thomas Cook should strive to know more about what the Dutch prefer, and this will assist in knowing what should be offered to them. Potential customers should be targeted and in turn, they will market to other people. A positive image of Morocco needs to be created as this will affect the perception of the tourist destination (Books, 2010). Lastly, all the existing competitors should be identified, and ways found to eliminate them.
In any marketing plan, there has to be strategies, which will help in accomplishing the goals that have been established. This means that the marketing four P’s should be included in the marketing mix strategy. They include promotion, place, price and product. The customers of the package to Morocco being offered by Thomas Cook should be informed of the benefits involved. This should be based on the perspective of the customer, by making sure that the product’s unique features are known. In the package, aspects should be marketed well, as a way of added advantage or selling points. It is vital to anticipate what the customer’s needs, so that they will be satisfied when they are in contact with the product being offered. For example, the package should contain information such methods of travel, length of stay, and travel itinerary, among others. Also, when making decisions about products, the following factors should be considered include; quality of services to be offered, as well as the brand name, among others (Riege & Perry, 2000).
Price is another strategy that should be considered by Thomas Cook as it seeks to establish its operations in Morocco. It is vital that the competitor’s strategies are known, and used as a benchmark towards achieving competitive advantage. The other tour companies that have operations in Morocco should not have a better pricing strategy than that of Thomas Cook. Product perception is often affected by the price that is attached to it. When the price being offered is low, the tourists will have a negative view of the destination. They often tend to think that the destination is cheap, and thus avoid travelling to such destinations (Thompson, 2001). After Thomas Cook has known about the existing industry averages, it can then adjust its price to meet one that is on par with the rest. In order for Thomas Cook to realize profits, it should constantly monitor its operating costs and prices. Moreover, it should establish policies that ensure that the strategy will result in high profit margins (Riege & Perry, 2000). Thomas Cook should also establish the expected revenue it hopes to achieve from the tourists that will purchase its package. Some vital pricing aspects that need to be known are discounts, list price, payment terms, and exchange rates, among others. They ensure that customers are aware of the price details of the package that they are choosing. The budget that Thomas Cook has set aside for advertising should serve its purpose. Tourists in the targeted marketing segments should all be reached and be informed of the tour packages being offered to Morocco by Thomas Cook (Riege & Perry, 2000).
The last strategy that should be employed by Thomas Cook is the one concerning promotion. Some of the ways it can advertise is through the internet, television, radio, billboards, brochures and travel magazines, among others. The more media sources are used in advertising, the better the success rates. Also, constant monitoring of the advertisement media should take place in order to promote Thomas Cook well. Market data should be available to the tourists who are being targeted in order to demonstrate competitiveness (Thompson, 2001). As mentioned previously, Thomas Cooks seeks to use the help of the government of Morocco to advertise. This is a successful strategy as the government is a credible advertising tool and many people are often influenced to travel if a government is involved. Other vital factors concerning promotion that need to be known are the amount of money to be used in advertising (Thompson, 2001). Also, the expected results from the ongoing promotions, as well as any other additional promotional programs need to be known. Another way of promoting Thomas Cook is through public relations, which involves talking with various tourism stakeholders, especially in Morocco (Books, 2010). They are the ones who know the most beneficial way of attracting potential tourists to Morocco. In conclusion, the marketing objectives of Thomas Cook will succeed if the strategy that they have is right.
References
Books, LLC (2010).Tourism in Morocco: Airlines of Morocco, Airports in Morocco, Hotels in
Morocco, Visitor Attractions in Morocco, Marrakech-Menara Airport. Chicago: General Books, LLC.
Thompson, J.L. (2001). Strategic Management –Awareness and Change 4th Ed. London: Thompson.
Riege, A. & Perry, C. (2000). National Marketing Strategies in International Travel and Tourism. European Journal of Marketing, 34 (11/12) 1290-1304.
Thomas Cook, (2012). Retrieved on March 15, 2012 from HYPERLINK “http://www.thomascookgroup.com” http://www.thomascookgroup.com