Epidemiology: Communicable Disease

Disease Lab: Assignment 

Follow the link for the disease lab: https://www.learner.org/wp-content/interactive/envsci/disease/disease.html?initLesson=1

Carry out the following Assignment

Background:

Human and animal diseases are often caused by viruses or bacteria. Over the past two hundred or so years, vaccines have eradicated some of these diseases. Communicable diseases spread in different ways: through blood, air, feces/urine, food, or water. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) keep constant watch over the most potentially dangerous diseases and the most likely threats to various world populations.

New diseases (such as SARS) and the possibility of a pandemic flus have also raised international concerns about health. As populations grow, especially in densely packed urban areas, there is increased risk of disease transmission.

This lab will let you explore various diseases: Kold, a caricature of the common cold; Impfluenza, which resembles influenza; Neasles, with the high transmission rate of measles; and Red Death, a fast-spreading epidemic with a high mortality rate.

Most diseases begin with what is called “the virgin field”—a scenario in which humans have no natural or man-made immunity to the disease. In the first scenario on the following page, you will run a simulation of three contagions set to “virgin field”.

Vaccinating a population has a similar effect to changing the population density (lower density reduced spread, also vaccinations reduce spread). An immune person is no longer a vehicle for transmitting the disease, thus lowering the effective density of the population. Since we can’t control population density in most cases, vaccination is one of the best means to prevent the spread of disease, not just to the vaccinated individuals, but to the population as a whole. In Scenario 2 on the following page you will choose a percentage of vaccinated people in the population and re-run your simulations using the SAME parameters you used for Scenario 1.

Scenario 1: Virgin Field (5 marks)

Run the simulation using three different Contagions (one MUST be Kold), you may choose your own population density and population mixing, but be sure to record the parameters you selected! Take a screen capture of the end result of each of your simulations to attach to your assignment.

	Population Density/ Mixing	Contagion	Population Number	Starting Number of Contagious People	Sick Days Reported	Death Toll
Run 1
Run 2
Run 3

Scenario 2: Vaccination (5 marks)

Run the simulation using the SAME parameters as above however, this time choose a vaccination percentage for the population, record your chosen percentage. Take a screen capture of the end result of each of your simulations to attach to your assignment.

	Population Density/ Mixing	Contagion	Population Number	Starting Number of Contagious People	Sick Days Reported	Death Toll
Run 1
Run 2
Run 3

Briefly answer the following questions, referencing outside sources in APA format (https://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/01/) as appropriate – include these, your tables, and screen captures, as a single file (word or PDF) submitted to the assignments folder in D2L.

1. What vaccination percentage did you use for Scenario 2 (1 mark)?
2. What happens to the number of sick days and death toll when you compare Scenario 1 to Scenario 2? Why does it change? (2 marks)
3. Was the death toll ever zero (1 mark)? What does this tell you about the virulence of the different diseases? (4 marks)
4. What happens if you run the pandemic scenario with Red Death disease, at 0% vaccination and a high population density/high mixing (1 marks)? What does this tell you about the virulence of this disease? (3 marks)
5. What virus (either discussed in class so far, or that you have heard about in the news) do you think is the greatest threat to the population of Toronto now that you have learned a little more about vaccination and transmission? Explain using references (8 marks)

References: (please list references using APA format below)