Recent orders
the effects of the proposed scenarios on the automotive manufacturing industry in the United Kingdom between now and 2020 and
Abstract
The chief executive officer of the Royal Dutch Shell Jeroen Van der Veer predicted that the demand for oil and gas would be far much higher than 2015 and he outlines two scenarios that will emerge in response, which he called, scramble and blueprints. This paper is going to look at the effects of the proposed scenarios on the automotive manufacturing industry in the United Kingdom between now and 2020 and between 2020 and 2040. The paper will start by outlining the scenarios and identifying the various Auto makers in the UK before looking at the UK motor industry against the backdrop of the scramble and blueprint scenarios.
Introduction
Using the Porter’s 5 forces strategic planning model, this paper will look at how the auto industry in the UK will be affected by the predicted shell and blueprints scenario. To make long term strategies, shell has been developing scenarios since the 70’s and the latest scenario is the Scramble and Blueprints that illustrates the routes the world will take in the face of the energy crisis that will hit the world as from 2015. The scramble route will be an exciting route with a lot of competition but will grind to a halt with unimaginable consequences (Veer 2008). The scramble scenario is a path of less resistance where the nations will make haste while the sun shines meaning that they will run to secure energy resources and there will be losers and winners. However, a time will come when all the fuel energy will be depleted and the race will come to a painful end. This method solves no problem because the supplies will run short leading to high energy prices, political response and volatility.
However, the Blueprint option will have a lot of problems at the start and the ride will be bumpy but due to the ingenuity and technical innovation, the excitement will be felt at the end. Whichever route is taken, the problem cannot be solved without the addition of other energy sources in the world in order to keep up with the increasing demand occasioned by the population upsurge (Veer 2008). However, the Blueprints route will be disorderly at the start but less painful toward the end because positive coalitions will emerge to ensure energy security and enhance more innovation. This scenario will work hand in hand with the environmental sustainability path and there will be growth of number of cars that use alternative energy sources like electricity and hydrogen. The relationship among automotive industry, shell scramble and the scenario in blue print will be manifested in these alternative sources of energy because of their impact on the industry. The case in this paper is the UK’s automotive industry.
2020 Industry Structure Analysis
Using the five forces model it is possible to predict how the automotive industry structure will be like in the year 2020. The demand that will outstrip supply will have taken effect in the year 2015 meaning that the supplier concentration will be lower than today. The importance of volume to the suppliers will have faded and the importance of volume will have shifted to the consumers who will have to scramble for the dwindling resources, though efforts will not have been made to develop other sources of energy.
UK will be definitely one of the countries that will rush to secure energy resources for itself because of its economic and political standing in the globe and the threat of the dwindling resources will not have been felt by the Britons meaning that the Auto manufactures will continue manufacturing top of the range fuel guzzlers because there will be ready market at home. However, there will be market for these outside Europe, especially in the countries that will have emerged as losers in the scramble for the resource. Now that the scramble option does not have room for creativity (Veer, 2008), the automakers won’t have started making substitutes meaning that there will be no threat of substitutes.
Still, in the initial phase of the scramble, the situation will not be that complex to bar the entry into the market of other brands into the UK market thus there will be fewer barriers to entry and thus the competition from foreign models will still be there in the automotive industry. The fourth force is the degree of rivalry between different car manufacturers and it will remain as it is now, because in the first place, there is no threat of substitutes and secondly, all the manufacturers will be facing the same level of supply problem. They will continue to make the top of the range vehicles because the threat of supply won’t be that effective in UK. The last force in this model is the buyer power. The prices of oil will not have risen that much because as said earlier, UK will be in a vantage position to secure the resource meaning that the market for the fuel guzzlers will still be there because the rise in the fuel prices will not be that large to affect the buyer power. In short, the scramble option will reduce the supply but not by large margins that will affect the rate of auto production and will also not affect the buyer power by serious margins. However, the other three forces which are the threat of substitutes, the barriers to entry and the degree of rivalry will remain constant during the first phase of the scramble. This means that the auto industry in the UK will remain healthy because of the fact that the force of supply will not deteriorated.
On the other hand, if we look at the future of the UK auto industry in view of the blueprint scenario, we can see an auto industry where nations are forced to start addressing the issue of fuel crisis from the onset and there will be no selfish rush for the commodity by nations (Veer 2008). In fact the blueprint path will focus on the economical use of the resource all across the world so that the resources can last longer as the problem is being solved. This means that the supply will be low and the prices high. The UK automakers especially the ones who make fuel guzzlers will be hard hit because the sales will be down. This will force the makers to produce cheaper alternatives which will increase the rivalry in the fuel friendly car market. The threat of substitutes will also increase because there will be more varieties of cheaper models to choose from and the buyer power will go high because the alternatives will be easily accessible. A wider population and the price of the fuel will not affect their power so much because of the low consumption ability of the available alternatives.
Auto Industry Structure Analysis for 2040
By 2040, the disastrous effects of the scramble option will have started to be felt. As described before, the scenario is not innovative in nature. There will be a mad rush for the fuel resources initially but the rush will come to a dead end that will have painful consequences especially for the automotive industry (Veer, 2008). By 2040, if the scramble route will be followed, there will be negligible fuel resources in the world and none of the countries will have a competitive advantage over the other because there will be nothing to scramble for. The supply will be at an all time low and some of the fuel companies will have closed shop as well as some of the auto makers meaning that the supply of motor vehicles will reduce. This will be because of the cost of the main automotive input that is fuel. However, there will be no substitutes (alternative forms of energy) because the scramble option will be a myopic option that will not lead in the creative innovation of substitutes to suit the dire condition that the world will be facing.
The second force to look at is the Barriers to entry. This is one force that can go either way. Currently, very few auto makers in the UK have started making electric vehicles or vehicles that use alternative forms of energy, while auto makers in the other parts of the world have started making such cars. These include Volkswagen and GM. Now that the initial phase of the scramble will ensure that there is enough fuel resource in the UK, the automakers will most likely start making alternative innovations. The condition in the world will make it easy for auto makers that already have vehicles that can use alternative forms of energy to make entry, and in this case, three forces will come into play. These are the barrier of entry where there will be less to bar the entry of overseas automaker that can provide alternatives, the second force is the threat of substitutes (vehicles) meaning that the Auto industry in UK will suffer because of the entry of products that can substitute what they make and finally the degree of rivalry will be high among the new entrants with alternative vehicles and low among the UK automakers who will be suffering from reduced sales.
The fifth force that will be affected is the buyer power. In both cases the buyer power will go down. This is because vehicles that use alternative energy are very expensive to buy and on the other hand the oil prices will be too prohibitive and only a few will be able to buy fuel (Veer 2008). The scramble option therefore will precipitate crisis in the UK auto industry and it will be very painful for both the automakers and the consumers. Some of the automakers especially the ones that specialize in fuel guzzlers will have no option but to close shop because their products will no longer be useful under the situation.
Blueprint Scenario and the industry in 2040
In this phase, the shape of the UK auto industry will have changed completely. This is because, due to innovations motivated by the oil crisis and the sustainable environment policies (Veer, 2008). Most auto makers will have shifted to making engines powered by alternative energies other than gas and diesel meaning that hydrogen, solar and electric powered cars will be more than the diesel/gas powered cars. All these alternatives are renewable and using the five forces model, the force of supply will remain constant to all. This means that it will remain ineffective in the new structure. The substitutes will be highly threatening because it will increase the varieties for the consumers. The rivalry will be intense among the automakers because they will all have new products they are trying to push in the market and the intense rivalry will make the entry of new players very hard unless those players make their entry before this innovation process starts. The power for the buyers to buy the models will decrease even though the maintenance cost will be low because the initial cost of the models will be high and majority will not afford. This means that by 2040, the automotive industry in UK will be struggling
Bibliography
Veer, J V. 2008, Shell Scenarios: Blueprints or Scramble, Retrieved on Dec 19 2009 from http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2008/01/shells-scenarios-blueprints-or-scramble.html
Define the key concepts associated with this topic.
Activity worksheet 9│Attitude
(Word count: 1415)
List of collaborators:
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Define the key concepts associated with this topic.
Attitude
An Attitude can be defined as a learned or acquired predisposition to portray particular behaviour in a manner that is constantly favourable or unfavourable in regard to a certain issue, object, topic, or situation (Neal, Quester, & Hawkins, 2002). It is also said to be an enduring mix of perceptual, cognitive, motivational, or emotional processes in regard to some aspects of an environment (Neal et al., 2002). Attitudes are informed by characteristics such as direction, intensity, salience, stability, situational, degree of confidence, transferability, consistency, and learned predisposition.
Functions of AttitudeFunctions of attitude are the basic and main motivations that influence the formation of a perception. They are also identified by Schiffman and Kanuk (2000) as the basis of an attitude change strategy, including the utilitarian, ego-defensive, value-expressive, and knowledge functions.
Utilitarian Function
In marketing, the utilitarian function is applied in leading consumers to products that attain a desired outcome. For example, a soap that keeps the body cool
Ego‐defensive
Is a function in attitudes that has a major role of protecting the ego from anxieties and threats. For example, a deodorant that helps men avoid body odor
Value‐Expressive
In marketing, value expressive functions help the consumer to express self‐image and values. For example, a deodorant that gives you confidence.
Knowledge
In marketing, it assists consumers in the organization of the mass of information to which they are exposed to on a daily basis. For example a soap that kills all germs and prevents accumulation of bacteria
Theory of Reasoned Action
In this attitude theory, the formation of individual perceptions are seen as a function of consumer belief regarding the benefits and attributes of a brand (Fitzmaurice, 2005). The aim of this concept in marketing is to assist marketers in diagnosing the weaknesses or strengths of a brand relative to their competition.
Describe the key elements of the tri-component theory of attitude formation and change. How does the theory work?
The tri-component theory of attitude formation and change suggests three main components: the cognitive (knowledge), affective (emotional and feeling), and conative (action). The theory suggests that attitude formation begins with knowledge in the cognitive. For example, consumer knowledge about a product or brand informs their attitude. The affect component is made up of the emotional and feeling components in an attitude. It is the depiction of the attitude itself that may be neutral, negative, or positive. In marketing, it points to the feelings of a consumer relating to a service or product offering and marketing mix. Emotions relate to one attribute, several, or the entire object. For example, an ad that uses dark skinned women to show how the product whitens their skin may be interpreted as racist and therefore a negative attitude formed by the consumer. Lastly, in the tri-component theory, the conative or behavioural component depicts an outcome of the attitude formed. Attitudes are not seen in the first two components. Knowledge and emotions are not illustrative or expressive of an attitude. The conative component indicates the tendency of an individual to act or not to act as expected in regard to the attitude of a product.
Many social marketers are interested in promoting behavioural change towards socially desirable behaviours. In your groups, select two (2) contrasting fear appeals among the selection posted on vUWS and discuss whether you believe the ad would be effective in changing attitudes towards the target behaviour.
Ad 1:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aTtCdzD9cE&t=30sWho is the target market(s) for the ad? [Be specific and descriptive, i.e. not just “smokers”. Use demographic and/or psychographic profile descriptors]
In the Think! Road Safety – Speeders Come Out Of Nowhere (2020)(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aTtCdzD9cE&t=30s), the Media Road Safety Unit (MRSU) of South Australia Police targets individual road users who admit to occasionally exceeding the set speed limits. The campaign uses normal Australians going about their day to show why people speed and finding out ways to convince them to stop. A middle-aged man represents individuals who speed, disregarding other road users. In the graphic depiction of what would happen in real life, he is responsible for the death of a mother and her daughter, who were careful to observe every rule in driving. The campaign targets drivers who think that they have the right skills to go beyond the set speed limits, making them a hazard to every other road user.
What behaviour is being targeted? [Think carefully. E.g. it may not just be “quit smoking”. Look for any call to action in the ads]
The driver being targeted is the attitude that some drivers are better than others and therefore are under the impression that they have superior driving skills to exceed set speed limits. The campaign targets drivers who perceive others as too careful, and therefore, lacking in skills to speed.
What elements of the advertising creative do you think are being used and how?
The advertisement uses purpose, audience, relevance, and platform. The purpose of the ad is clear, to help stop the number of drivers who think speeding makes them more skilled. The audience includes both safe and careless drivers. The relevance is used to showcase the effects of poor judgment to others. Drivers who think they are more skilled are presented as hazards to other road users. The platform used is also very effective, the use of a video that applies a real-life scenario passes the message home.
Do you think it is an effective ad? Why/why not? [NB: Use attitude theory in your response wherever possible]
Yes. This is a very effective ad. First, it targets a very specific attitude about road users. It categorizes all road users into two: law/rules abiding and the reckless user who perceives speeding as a definition of skills. According to the ego-defensive function, such drivers form the attitude to defend their ego, self-concept, and self-image.
Ad 2:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIkNrwBZj8UWho is the target market(s) for the ad? [Be specific and descriptive, i.e. not just “smokers”. Use demographic and/or psychographic profile descriptors]
Graphic messages on cigarette packs are mandatory, and perhaps not very effective in deterring smokers from indulging. The Quit Smoking Campaign – Quit Stalling advertisement (available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIkNrwBZj8U) targets young male smokers in the 18 to 34 age bracket in the New South Wales region. The reason these individuals are targeted is because they have the highest smoking rates per population. They are also targeted because they are highly likely to disregard the packaging warnings printed on cigarette packs.
What behaviour is being targeted? [Think carefully. E.g. it may not just be “quit smoking”. Look for any call to action in the ads]
The behaviour targeted is the perception that young males have a little bit more time to smoke and that they can quit in later stages of life. The attitude that one has a lot of time is used by the campaign to instil fear, showing that the costs of smoking will come earlier than expected.
What elements of the advertising creative do you think are being used and how?
The advertisement is using fear. The fear that one may not be as physically healthy as other 34 year olds due to smoking is exploited.
Do you think it is an effective ad? Why/why not? [NB: Use attitude theory in your response wherever possible]
I think this is an effective ad because it counters an attitude that one has a lot of time to engage in smoking without fear of consequences. The ad uses the attitude-towards-behaviour model to show how one engages in smoking, knowing the consequences yet ignoring them for the simple thrill of smoking.
How does this activity link to the topic? This linking statement might indicate how the activity enables learning about specific aspects of the topic, or the application of the theory
This activity links back to the topic in defining attitudes, how they are formed and the best ways to change them through marketing campaigns. Specifically, the activity shows how marketers use the knowledge about behaviour modelling and attitude formation to emphasize or change a specific perception.
Reference List
Fitzmaurice, J., 2005. Incorporating consumers’ motivations into the theory of reasoned action. Psychology & Marketing, 22(11), pp.911-929.
Neal, C.M., Quester, P.G. and Hawkins, D., 2002. Consumer Behaviour, Implication for Marketing Strategy (3rdedn.). Australia: McGraw Hill Publication.
Schiffman, L.G. and Kanuk, L.L., 2000. Consumer behavior, 7th. NY: Prentice Hall, pp.15-36.
The effects of the Brown Tree snake on Guam
The effects of the Brown Tree snake on Guam
Boiga irregularis also known as the brown tree snake as a common name is a member of the Colubridae family that comprises of snakes that were known to be harmless initially. The brown tree snake originates from Coastal Australia and other islands found in north-western Melanesia. Though it is known as the brown tree snake, its main habitat is not in highly forested areas. It occurs in sparsely forested places as well as in grasslands. The snake is commonly found in caves, trees, hollow logs where it hides during the day and comes down at night to forage.
The original length of the brown tree snake is three to six feet long, but this snake has achieved lengths of up to ten feet in areas where food supplies are in plenty. The snake is also slim in addition to it being very long giving it the ability to climb faster and pass through small spaces. The snake varies in colour ranging from yellow, green and brown with different patterns. These colours allow the snake to camouflage well to better capture its prey. The brown tree snake is an effective colonizer because it can feed on a variety of foods. These snakes feed on lizards, frogs, small mammals, bird’s eggs and birds (Finley & Finley Jr., 2005).
The reproductive system of brown tree snake is complicated and little is known about it. The female lays eggs in cave or a hollow log where they protected from dehydration. The female is able to lay eggs twice a year, but it depends on availability prey and variation in climate. Just like most snakes the female brown tree snake has the ability to store sperms for a long time after mating where fertilization occurs after the female produces the eggs.
The brown tree snake is very aggressive when attacked or threatened. They have grooved teeth that inject venom and they are likely to bite several times. The venom is poisonous and effectively kills the prey after which the snake wraps its body around the prey to immobilize it while feeding on it. The venom is however not considered harmful to adult humans but has been known to cause respiratory complications.
Invasion of the Brown Tree Snake in Guam
Just like the serpent in the Garden of Eden that brought a lot of destruction, the brown tree snake caused the extinction of birds in Guam. According to Eldredge (2002), within the last fifteen years, the twelve native species of birds in Guam have been reduced to three with extinction of nine native species and subspecies. This is due to the introduction of the snake following the end of the Second World War. As the bird’s species became extinct, the scientists in Guam did not know the predator that was responsible and this enabled the brown tree snake to expand across the island of Guam. The brown tree snake was first reported to be in Guan in 1950s. Rodents were the common prey for the snake and therefore, it was not termed as a threat to birds.
Eldredge (2002) attributes the expansion of the brown tree snake population to ample food supply and lack of predators. The population growth was exponential and they colonized most of the kingdom feeding on rats, lizard, juvenile bats incapable of flight and birds (Finley & Finley Jr., 2005). Bird’s species were declining at a high rate and so was the other animals that were being preyed on by the snakes. Birds disappeared at a high rate because the brown tree snake dwells on trees and preys on bird’s eggs, nestlings and adult birds. The only species of birds that have not suffered great reduction in number or extinction are those that inhabit treeless areas (Eldredge, 2002). In 1984, the United States Fish and Wildlife declared that most native birds in the forest habitant in Guam were termed as extinct or endangered.
The extinction of most of the native species of birds in Guam was a tragic loss for biodiversity compounded by secondary effects that the people of Guam are beginning to understand (Eldredge, 2002). The decline of bird’s species that preyed on insects has led to the increase in population of insects resulting in the destruction of crops. Bats which are also prey to the brown tree snake play a crucial role in seed dispersal as well as pollination. The plant population has been greatly affected by the drastic reduction of birds and bats. Unfortunately, the extinction of most of the bird’s species came at a time when little was known about the species and their ecological importance. According to Simberloff and Rejmanek (2011) the brown tree snake has also directly affected humans because it also preys on domestic birds and has been known to attack children in their sleep. The snakes are also notorious for causing electrical outages. Power interruptions are costly to humans and also cause inconveniences. Venomous bites by these snakes are not fatal to humans, but have been known to cause respiratory complications. Guam has also lost a lot of revenue because tourist are not comfortable frequenting the area due to the fear that the snakes have instil in most people and the publicity of their presence in Guam.
The fate that has befallen Guam and the extensive damage caused has arisen an alarm in neighbouring countries where they are afraid of invasions by the brown tree snake. Unfortunately, the conditions that led to the invasion of the brown tree snake in Guam still prevail. The snake was transported unintentionally to Guam by the military during transportation after the Second World War. The same could happen where the snakes are likely to be transported to various locations.
Control of Brown Tree Snakes on and off Guam
According to Simberloff and Rejmanek (2011) the risk of further invasion is what has prompted policymakers to fund the efforts to eradicate the brown tree snake from Guam. This is done through inspection of all networks of transportation to ensure that these snakes are not transported from one place to another. The other method is to biologically control the population of the brown tree snakes by understanding the snakes biologically. The greatest advantage is that Guam is geographically isolated and he only means through which the snakes can leave the island is by a sea vessel or an aircraft. Traps have also been place around airports to ensure that the snakes do not get in. The airport staff have also been trained on how to identify the hiding areas for these snakes and the safest way to capture them.
Although operations to eliminate the brown tree snakes from Guam is efficient mainly due to the research carried out as well as the lessons that the people of Guam have learned, the system is not perfect and the snakes have been found in other locations especially those where transportation is done frequently. Places like Hawaii are susceptible to invasion, but they have laid down policies that are likely to offer them protection in case of invasion. Eradication of these snakes in other places is likely to be more effective than Guam, because they are more prepared.
As discussed by Eldredge (2002) researchers are looking into ways of poisoning the brown tree snake or introducing a disease that would cause the death of the snakes, but this might pose a threat to other species as well as other animals they come into contact with. Other methods include placing electric barriers on trees as well as trimming of branches to prevent the snakes from hiding. The methods are however not very effective because they are expensive, labour intensive and impossible to cover a large area.
Conclusion
The brown tree snake has cause major destructions in Guam after its invasion. The snakes grew in numbers further causing destruction in Guam due to the presence of food and lack of prey. Though Guam in conjunction with other neighbouring countries have tried to eliminate the snakes, their efforts have not been very successful and the snake have been spotted in other locations. For elimination of these snakes to be possible, Guan will be required to spend a lot of money on research. Biological elimination of these snakes is more effective than use of electrical guards and the trimming of trees. The scientist could identify predators of the brown tree snake, increase them in number and strategically put them in the same habitat. They should be careful to ensure that the predators do not prey on other species of snakes because this would cause further destruction to the ecosystem. Complete elimination of the brown tree snake from Guam is possible, but it could take a lot of time for this to be realized.
References
Eldredge, N. (2002). Life on Earth: An Encyclopaedia of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution. California: ABC-CLIO.
Simberloff, D. & Rejmanek, M. (2011). Encyclopaedia of Biological Invasions. California: University of California Press.
Finley, R. & Finley, R. Jr. (2005). Intermittent Frontiers: On How Changing Ecological Factors Control Natural Selection. USA: Pilgrims Process, Inc.