Paper 1: Population

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Institution

SECTION A

The size of the world population is based on the life expectancy, infant mortality, fertility rates, and the age structure of the people. The world population has been rising between 1800 and 1900 due to higher fertility and high life expectancy in most parts of the country. There were lots of developments in the economic sectors during the period, which led to more production. The condition led to an increase in population as there was food for the population. However, it was also influenced by the emergence of wars that affected people’s wellbeing and settlement; hence population growth kept fluctuating for years. However, from 1800, the world’s population increased to the 1980s where the population started declining due to the rising cases of diseases and health facilities, cultures, and traditional norms that influenced people’s decisions to have more children.

In 1800, statistics showed a population of 1 billion in the whole world, which when compared to the current population is 1860 times more (Horiuchi, 1993). It is estimated that the population is growing 0.04% annually hence resulting in the recent increase. The number of deaths neutralized the number of births, encouraging high fertility rates to cover the low population. Also, the availability of food products permitted the increase in births since the individuals had more food for born children. However, in the mid-18th century, the population growth rate was more rapid due to man’s control over nature, the industrial revolution, and the decline in mortality rates. AS man found power over nature, individuals were encouraged to produce more to exploit the available natural resources and properties owned. The industrial revolution provided employment opportunities for the people in the regions; hence more people had the income to provide for larger families. It also increases the provision of food due to higher production, making it easier for individuals to support their families, hence encouraging the populations.

The impact of the industrial revolution was highly experienced in the developed countries; hence they experienced high population trends of 0.9 in 1900 compared to 0.6 % in the developing countries. However, in the mid-20th century, the trend changed due to the increased impact of the Industrial Revolution on developing countries. The growth rate for the developing countries rose to 2.2%, while that of developed countries was at 1.1 % (Rozer et al., 2021). The rising population was also attributed to the widening gap between mortality and birth rates due to better healthcare facilities and greater food supply. Most of the aging population got better health services which boosted their lives, leading to lower mortality rates; in the same way, children’s deaths were reduced since better facilities supported lives leading to a higher population.

The world population is unevenly distributed, with a higher number of people in the northern hemisphere and lower in the southern. Arica has had the highest growth over time of 3%, followed by Latin America at 2.3 %, Asia at 1.7, and the USA at 0.9%. The difference in population is due to the changes in the communities’ economic and cultural norms, which encourage the individuals to increase the number of children or fail to have many children. According to world meter, the world’s current population is at 7.6 billion, with Asia having the highest at 4.6 billion, followed by Africa at 1.3 billion, then Europe at 747 million (Worldometer, 2021). The growth rate is currently affected by the religion and economic conditions of the countries. However, there is an expected decrease in the population in the future due to the introduction of family planning and rising responsibilities.

Section B

The demographic condition of a country depends on the birth and death rates and the expectancy ratio of a country. According to the demographic transition theory, the future population growth develops along with a predictable four-stage model. The stages include; first, birth, death, and infant mortality rates are high while the expectancy ratio is low (Kirk, 1996). At this stage, the population is low since the number of mortalities is high. Second, the birth rates are high and the infant death drop, leading to higher population growth since most children survive. Third, the economy is more industrialized; hence the birth rates decline while increasing the death rate. Individuals become busier with jobs and getting economically stable, which prevents them. Also, the health impact of industrialization leads to higher deaths; hence at this stage, the population decreases. Forth, the postindustrial era of the society where the birth and death rates are low, people access better services, and the community experiences population stability. Therefore, the population increases since better healthcare facilities lead to healthier lives and high expectancy ratios.

The demographic transition theory applies to the trends and patterns of population growth. During the 1700s, the world’s population was in stage one, where the birth and death rates and infant mortalities were low. Therefore, the population growth was low since the number of births replaced the number of deaths in society. However, the birth rates increased over time while the infant death rates dropped, which increased the population rate in the 1900s. Industrialization then occurred, increasing the food production rates, which led to an increase in the population rates. Between the 1950s to 2000, the population o the world increased, starting with the developed countries to the developing countries. However, after industrialization, the population started decreasing due to low birth rates and low death rates due to the health facilities. Post industrialization has also realized more economic activities, making people more indulged in income generation, hence leading to lower population growth. The theory explains the trends in population changes and their causes relating to fertility, mortality, and expectancy ratios.

SECTION C

The trends of the population depend on the death of individuals, which determines the expectancy ratio of the population. The Malthusian theory suggests that three factors control the human population, which exceeds the earth’s capacity. The factors include war, femininity, and diseases. Conflicts lead to high death rates, which reduce the number of people in a region. In the same way, famine and diseases influence food production and may lead to death which regulates the fertility rates of the human population. According to the theory, the factors are called positive checks since they keep the population in check and regulate the number of individuals in the region (Andreev, 2019). Also, the theory states that the factors control the population by reducing fertility rates through birth control factors and celibacy. Therefore, when there is an occurrence of war, the population of a region decreases due to the death of individuals and high rates of reduced food products; hence humans reduce the fertility rates leading to a reduced population. However, the control cannot be determined nor regulated since they occur naturally based on a country’s condition.

The theory influences the population of the country and mostly leads to a reduction in the population rates. The world population reduces during the world wars due to the death of people and the lack of peace and harmony within the communities. From 1915 to 1945, the population of the world rapidly reduced due to the unrest in the countries. The mortality rates were high, and fertility rates decreased since most people were in the war, and the women had to take care of the existing children. Therefore, they lacked the time and chance to raise other children leading to low birth rates. There were high mortality rates and low birth rates; hence the imbalance caused a low population.

In the same way, famine in some countries reduced the number of people through deaths and discouraged the birth of other children due to lack of food to feed them. Also, the emergence of birth control drugs has led to low population growth rates; hence the current population rate is decreasing over time. After the world war, the world population has been declining to date due to the impact of the war. The emergence of industrialization and new methods of production have affected people’s perception of births.

Section D

A sketch of the world population history can be done through a census method of data collection. A census is a method of data collection where one obtains data from the population members through surveying households. The survey of the households involves identifying the number of people living in each of the houses and getting information from the residents on the population of the families in every community. A census is more effective when a sampling method is applied where a specific region is sampled at a time; hence easier to get the whole population throughout census collection (Vemuri, 1994). However, the method takes a lot of time and cost to get the intended information since one has to move from one household. However, it is more effective since it ensures that each family is represented through individual data collection in the families. Therefore, the method provides the most appropriate information that can be used to make decisions over the existing population. The method’s highest advantage is its higher accuracy of the data collected since each household is considered through sampling to ensure each region is considered.

The technique application first involves dividing the population into smaller strata, where each group is dealt with differently. The researcher then moves from one household to the other, interviewing the family members on the number of individuals in the families. The sum of the number of each group is done, and after the collection of data for the whole population, the sum of the groups gives the current number of people. However, the method involves a more hands-on activity, which is affected by the conditions of the environment. Therefore, the population rates during wars may not be accurate as other regions may fail to be considered due to unstable conditions. The period’s census during the world war may have been approximated, which provides the wrong data. Also, the census is done after a long period; hence, more individuals may have been born while others die by the time it is concluded. Therefore, the long period of using the method makes it inefficient and may have the wrong data of the whole population. It is also prone to more statistical errors; hence different individuals may have different results, influencing the final result.

SECTION E

A sample survey can also be used to get the population of the world through surveying a region. Currently, an online survey may be done where the regions are divided depending on like characteristics. Therefore, a sample of the population is considered, and the result is assumed to apply in each of the survey regions. The online survey may involve a questionnaire where people fill in their details and the number of individuals in each family. The online survey provides information for each family; hence the total number of people can be depicted. The method only chooses specific regions used to perform the actual survey while the other areas are assumed to have an equivalent number of people. The method reduces costs used since only a sample is considered hence lower cost for a smaller group (Taherdoost, 2017). Also, the time used for the technique is less; thus easier to get the result within a short period. The sample survey supports the inference from eth sample, which is scientifically valid about the population. Therefore, it becomes easier to apply the same result to the other survey groups, and a weighting is done to support the specific inference.

The sample survey used in the population trend may have a different result when the population considered does not represent the overall population. The sample chosen should have the same features as those of the other people, hence applying differently. However, when there is a difference in the characteristics of the regions, the result becomes higher or lower than the actual population size. The challenges of using a sample survey can be solved by considering survey requirements to ensure that the sample selected is more applicable to the population. Also, using various samples with different characteristics can help to make the appropriate decisions. This is because each sample group will represent the groups with similar traits hence have a better representation of each group. It is also appropriate to understand the population before the application of the data. A representative sampling where a careful, scientific method is used to select the sample from the population and estimate the population variables based on the sampling statistics will be more appropriate. When a better sampling is applied, the result would be more accurate.

References

Horiuchi, S. (1993). World Population Growth Rate: Why Declines Stalled in the 1980s. Population today, 21(6), 6-9.

Kirk, D. (1996). Demographic transition theory. Population studies, 50(3), 361-387.

Roser, M., Ritchie, H., & Ortiz-Ospina, E. (2021). World Population Growth. Our World in Data. Retrieved 5 October 2021, from https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth.

Taherdoost, H. (2017). Determining sample size; how to calculate survey sample size. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 2.

Vemuri, M. D. (1994). Data collection in census: A survey of census enumerators. Economic and Political Weekly, 3240-3248.

World Population Clock: 7.9 Billion People (2021) – Worldometer. Worldometers.info. (2021). Retrieved 5 October 2021, from https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/.