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Table of Contents

TOC o “1-3” h z u HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018932” 1.0 Background PAGEREF _Toc343018932 h 5

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018933” 1.1 Introduction PAGEREF _Toc343018933 h 5

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018934” 1.2 System approach for better project performance PAGEREF _Toc343018934 h 5

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018935” 1.3 Project evaluation performance and critical success factors PAGEREF _Toc343018935 h 6

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018936” 1.4 Justification PAGEREF _Toc343018936 h 7

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018937” 2.0 Aims PAGEREF _Toc343018937 h 7

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018938” 3.0 Draft Research Questions PAGEREF _Toc343018938 h 7

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018939” 4.0 Draft Research Objectives PAGEREF _Toc343018939 h 8

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018940” 5.0 Feasibility of the Study PAGEREF _Toc343018940 h 8

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018941” 6.0 How Your Work Fits Existing Published Work PAGEREF _Toc343018941 h 9

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018942” 6.1 Introduction PAGEREF _Toc343018942 h 9

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018943” 6.2 Causes of delays and their analysis techniques PAGEREF _Toc343018943 h 10

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018944” 6.3 Conclusion PAGEREF _Toc343018944 h 13

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018945” 7.0 Methodology PAGEREF _Toc343018945 h 13

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018946” 7.1 Choosing the methodology PAGEREF _Toc343018946 h 13

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018947” 7.2 Data collection methods PAGEREF _Toc343018947 h 14

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018948” 7.3 Data analysis PAGEREF _Toc343018948 h 15

HYPERLINK l “_Toc343018949” 8.0 References PAGEREF _Toc343018949 h 17

1.0 Background1.1 IntroductionLack of adequate work preparation before commencing a project of any type causes serious problems during the implementation period. Oil and Gas Industry have many projects related to digging of new wells, construction of oil or gas depot areas, and maintenance of the existing oil refineries. Most projects lack detailed designs showing how tasks should follow leading to disorganization and delay in delivering the expected results. These problems come from poor management and lack of the necessary information concerning the impact of delayed schedules in project planning control and management as mentioned in Popescu and Charoenngam (1995). In addition, project managers lack the necessary knowledge on the effects of project delays to the stakeholders. The availability of a system that would measure and analyze the impact of project delays would be most appropriate for quality project planning and control. Project scheduling involves timing and providing the necessary sequence for various operations in an effort to plan a project. A project schedule displays all the activities from the start of the project to the completion, indicating the period for each activity. A delay in such a schedule leads to many losses especially in the oil and gas industry where projects are very vital. Project management and delays assist in timely implementation of oil extraction processes and avoidance of delays that result into many losses. Oil and gas are very valuable resources since they play a great role improving a nation’s economy (Trauner 2009).

1.2 System approach for better project performanceMost projects in the oil and gas industry involves millions of dollars and delaying them would cost the implementing country an anonymous loss. In addition, nations lack project managers with the knowledge of handling projects within the scheduled plan and deliver the expected work outcome. According to Han et al., (2009), a quality system approach for a better project performance will ensure fewer delays are experienced in oil and gas industry projects. Four basic dimensions should be employed to account for any decision making process in planning for mega projects in oil and gas industry. These are: performance specification, transparency, proper formulation of regulatory regimes, and involving capital risks in project planning and control. Developing systematic thoughts, developing large scale living system and proper planning are the three major perspectives that contribute to quality success in all innovations and projects. All these aspects are possible if project managers are capable of analyzing the scheduled delays using the most appropriate system that would ensure timely completion of all scheduled project activities as mentioned in Bruzelius, Flyvbjerg and Rothengatter (1998).

1.3 Project evaluation performance and critical success factorsOil and gas industry projects require significant efforts that evaluate their performance. These evaluations should provide for any economic risks involved in implementing the project. Delays always lead to increased costs, and more risks. Some projects are scheduled at specific weather conditions and any delay would eventually lead to many effects related to weather conditions increasing the cost of implementation. According to Williams (2003), time delays in project planning and control are analyzed in terms of the following. First, the relative significance factors leading to project delays. Second, the use of computerized methods, like Critical path method (CPM), in analyzing the causes of delayed schedule. Finally, a system that would compute the cost of asset delays and relate its impact on the project delay would help in the evaluation as stated in Flyvbjerg, Holm and Buhl (2004).

1.4 JustificationVarious reports concerning failure of completion of many projects within the specified time worldwide justifies this research. In addition, some causes of project delays have not yet been established and this research will study these causes and determine the best technique for analyzing their impacts. From my findings, project delay impact analyzing technique should be utilized especially in the oil and gas industry. The most relevant areas for the analysis include the impact of project schedule delays and their effects in the whole industry. Moreover, the research will help in analyzing the main causes of delays experienced before and how the project managers would have acted to prevent them..

2.0 Aims

The main aim of this dissertation is to apply the schedule delay analysis technique in the study of project control, and come up with an analysis of the net impact resulting from oil and gas industry project delays.

3.0 Draft Research QuestionsThe following research will assist in determining the best methodological approach to use in carrying out the research. In addition, the questions assist in developing the research objectives. The research will be guided by the following questions:

How do project managers understand about project scheduling?

What is the available literature on the general causes of oil and gas industry project delays?

What are the impacts of project delays, and who are the most affected by such delays in the oil and gas industry?

What are the most common techniques used in analyzing project delays today? How effective are they?

Who are the most affected by project delays in the industry?

4.0 Draft Research Objectives

The following research objectives will act as guidelines for carrying out the research. Project schedule delays in the oil and gas industry contribute to the poor improvement of the industry calling for a more effective approach to prevent them (Dayi 2010). The main objective of this research to determine the most appropriate schedule delay analyses technique in order to analyze the impact of project delays in the oil and gas industry and come up with recommendation for project planner and controllers. The specific objectives are:

To analyze the major types of delays in various oil and gas industry projects,

To understand the aspect of projects scheduling,

To study the common project schedule delay analysis techniques used today, and

To determine the impact of project delays.

5.0 Feasibility of the Study

In order to ensure the success of the project a feasibility study will be conducted before the actual research. There is adequate access to research data because the project delays in the oil and gas industry have never been fully prevented. Most people from the industry are willing to answer any question that regards delay prevention and control. In addition, the availability of more knowledge and techniques in project management and control makes the research more feasible. The following research is acceptable and will be completed within the set period. Various aspects will be analyzed during the feasibility. These include;

Social and environmental impact feasibility,

Financial and economic feasibility,

Political feasibility, and

Technological feasibility.

6.0 How Your Work Fits Existing Published Work6.1 Introduction

The complexity found in today’s capital projects in the oil and gas industry makes their management highly critical. Most capital projects in the oil and gas industry involve a big percentage of company’s spending. Most stakeholders are calling for improved project control services. Developing a perfect system that analyzes the impact of scheduled delays would play a significant role in preventing such risks. Project managers face many challenges while managing a project right from the design phase to implementation phase. It is the desire of most project managers to finish their work within the schedule, and set budget while maintaining quality work. Most project managers fail in providing quality work within schedule and proposed budget due to lack of necessary project delay analysis techniques. In addition, projects in the oil and gas industry face delays because managers are more concerned with personal gains not considering the welfare of other stakeholders. With the high global energy demands, projects in the oil and gas industry should never face any delay since it costs industries huge sums of money (Smart Grid News 2012).,The following section analyzes the main ideas used in determining the impact of the project schedule delays and the techniques used in measuring the impacts.

6.2 Causes of delays and their analysis techniquesAssaf & Al-Hejji (2006) researched on the main causes of delays in many projects in various industries. Lack of proper preparation of a certain oil and gas industry project causes serious problems in the course of putting up the structure. In some instances, lack of proper and detailed drawings and poor project management plan schedules result into problems during the oil and gas industry work. This increases the cost establishing new oil and gas industry projects, extension of the project period and it causes serious effect on the quality of the completed work as stated in Assaf, Al-Khalil and Al-Hazmi (1995). The publication the research findings assist in giving the consequences of delays in oil and gas industry, but fails in delivering the main impacts of such consequences and their mitigations. According to Faridi and El-Sayegh (2006), most delays occur due to slow preparation and approval of drawings by the stakeholders in involved. In addition, lack of proper initial planning of the project results into many delays. Some project managers are slow in decision making that makes them fail in delivering the project within the scheduled duration.

On the other hand, inadequate resources, changes in design and orders from the contractors, un-forecasted weather changes, and late deliveries contribute to delay in project schedules as stated by Al-Momani (2000). Project management classifies delays into two types, those that are excusable and those that are inexcusable. Delays causes by contractor mistakes are referred to inexcusable delays. These include the failure in coordinating workers, and low productivity. On the other hand, delays occurring due to changes in project design or severe weather conditions are referred to excusable delays. Farah (2005) gives literature on various software models that have been used to support design in oil and gas industry project management. The publication also touches on the impact of the environment in the delay of project schedules. These ideas assist in analyzing the best technique that would be adaptable to different environments and weather conditions.

Researchers like Menesi, Arcuri, Dayi and Hildreth have developed various types of techniques used in scheduled delay analysis. Menesi (2007) came up with Multiple Baseline Updates delays scheduling technique after discovering the high number of inherent risks and complexity in today’s construction industry. Window delay analyses method has been used for many years as a delay analysis method in most project management and controls. In his technique, Menesi (2007) failed in analyzing some crucial aspects of project control. First, the technique fails in determining the impact of such project delays to the contractor, the project owner, and the community at large. Second, the system identifies the scheduled delays and their causes, but does not estimate their relevant costs and future recommendations. The idea is developing a technique that would measure the impacts of delays in all prevailing situations and overcomes new operational challenges.

Most oil and gas companies increases their focus on deepwater and ultra-deepwater sections meaning that the future projects will face a lot of challenges because of the unfamiliar environment. Present developed techniques only adapt to the current situations, and would definitely fail in such projects. According to Arcuri and Hildreth (2007), changes and delays in projects occurring during the implementation phase have significant impacts on the project schedule resulting into poor completion. These three authors came up with a delay analyzing technique referred to as The Schedule Impact Analysis that quantifies the effect of changes or delays on project schedules. This publication assists in reviewing the most common impacts caused by delays in various construction projects and incorporate them in the oil and gas industry projects. In addition, the implemented techniques will assist to determine the most relevant impacts and come up with perfect recommendations.

Each project must start with a plan that describes what, how, where, and in what manner will it be conducted. The project plan must be given a certain duration that everything must be completed, all other factors remaining constant. The oil and gas industry projects involve many risks that mostly lead to the failure of many projects on this sector. The impacts of such project schedule delays, if measured correctly would indicate great losses in terms of time and resources. Dayi (2010) developed another system that measures the net impacts associated with various delays in projects. The system was successful in identifying some impacts but filed in projects involving complicated methods, like hydraulic fracturing technology. The researcher lacked modern software that could measure the impact of such innovation. This project will come up with modern software systems that detect such impacts and are compatible with future technologies up to 2017.

Research by Stelth and le Roy (2009) discussed the use of Critical Path Method (CPM) in project impact analysis. The following technique uses virtual management teams in analyzing how various tasks cause delays and the consequences of such delays. The technique can measure impact of scheduled delays in projects from different industries. In addition, the technique advocates for the need to reduce construction costs through increasing profits and revenues by making sure project implementation occurs within the proposed time and cost. Stelth and le Roy (2009) find more use on this research because the authors have already researched on the factors associated with environment that hinders administration of certain techniques. Through this knowledge, the proposed technique would be developed ensuring that it fits well in the oil and gas industry especially for those deepwater projects.

6.3 Conclusion

Because oil and gas industry is one of the big economic giants in the world, delay in such projects would cause a significant loss to a nation. On the other hand, the following research will ensure no further delays occur in oil and gas industries because it touches all aspects of quality project planning and control. With the help of the above discussed publications, the proposed technique would be more effective and reliant in project control. In addition, the research findings would play a significant role in minimizing problems experienced by previous people who carried out survey on other industries. Moreover, the deep oil and gas contraction project engineers would get a chance of designing more complicated drilling machines that are more effective and less costly at the long-run.

7.0 Methodology7.1 Choosing the methodologyCarrying out research in the oil and gas industry requires properly planned research methodology in order to address all the issues concerned with the research objectives. The research will make use of qualitative and quantitative research methodology. The aim of the methods used will be to collect all data related to the research topic. According to Midgley (2000), the research methodology chosen conforms to the proposal objectives. This assist in the identification of the best methodology that allows quality data collection procedure that is independent. The research methodology chosen will identify the most appropriate data collection processes, and the content of information gathered while undertaking a research. Moreover, research methodology used will play a significant role in making judgments outlining boundaries of the method put in place (Chiara et al 1997). The quantitative research methodology will be used in effective data collection using surveys, interviews, and questionnaires.

Qualitative research methodology is chosen because it has the characteristic of generating new knowledge by participating vigorously in the field and forms the key source of primary data as stated in Nicholls (2011). The main reason for choosing these methods is because the research will analyze the scheduled delays in oil and gas industry using impact analysis technique and come up with a new idea that have never been researched before. The impact analysis technique will use a machine that identifies and record the effects caused by project delays in form of units (Newton per meter). The type of survey that will take place will be very unique since the researcher will have to make comparisons on the field with reference to the data collected on previous researches.

7.2 Data collection methodsAs stated above, the research will make use of qualitative data collection method where surveys, questionnaires and interviews will be the main data collection tools. The three data collection methods are justified for the research because they will ensure all the needed information is gathered (Midgley 2008). First, questionnaires make use of scales in gathering the desired response from the target group. Using questionnaires, the respondent’s piece of mind comes out clearly since the respondent’s mind is psychologically placed in the prevailing situation. The interviews will be used in answering research questions like those investigating the most common causes of industry project delays. Moreover, through the question the researcher will be in a position to understand the understanding of project scheduling by project managers. The researcher needs to develop a question that needs an answer. This step aids in locating the most effective secondary data that need study to answer the developed query. In addition, before basing an argument on the secondary data, the researcher needs to find out what has been done since the release of the secondary data as mentioned in Struwig and Stead (2001).

Second, use of interviews will assist in creating an environment where the respondent develops trust with the researcher. Interviews will ensure high accuracy on the collected information since the data is centered towards the respondent’s occupation or experience within the oil and gas industry. Third, the survey method will form the most systematic method of collecting data from the population of interest. Through surveys, the research questions will be completed within a relatively short time with many respondents taking place. In addition, the surveys will assist in collecting information of the stakeholders who are far away because it can be done by telephone, mail, or fax as mentioned in Opdenakker (2006).

The target group for this research will compose of project managers in the oil and gas industry, project coordinators, stakeholders, the society, and the workers. The participants of the research will be chosen using extensive means by first ensuring they have full information about projects conducted in the targeted region. In addition, the research will entail use of various resources that will aid in gathering the required information in an effective and timely manner. Since the data collection system will be guided by the available literature, the research will make use of websites, academic journals on oil and gas industry, and relevant books with information on project management and control. Moreover mathematical and statistical tools like graphs and charts will be used in data analysis and presentation of the research findings.

7.3 Data analysisThe collected data will be useful not only in the oil and gas sector, but other sectors that use project management and control. Most people will analyze the data in a simple and comprehensible way that is easier to understand. The data analysis procedure will start with making a summary of all the respondents from various methods of data collection used. The responses will then be grouped according to their weight, and coded in statistical applications that will analyze the data in a more understanding manner. The statistical applications will transform the raw data into visible forms like graphs and charts. This analyses will assist in comparing the how effective is project delay schedule analysis impacts the overall performance. In addition, the presentations will aid in determining the use of impact analysis technique in oil and gas industry. Moreover, the collected data will be analyzed using factor analysis method. According to Ratcliff (n.d.), factor analysis establishes any similarities between the dependent and independent variables of the data.

Milestone table

Milestone Description Due date Remarks

1 Stage 1: Area of interest identified 8 Nov. 2012 Done

2 Stage 2: Specific topic selected 15 Nov. 2012 Done

3 Stage 3: Topic refined to develop dissertation proposal 22 Dec. 2012 Done

4 Stage 4: Proposal written and submitted 30 Dec. 2012 Done

5 Stage 5: Collection of data and information 15 Jan. 2013 Waiting

6 Stage 6: Analysis and interpretation of collected data/information 20 Jan. 2013 Waiting

7 Stage 7: Writing up 25 Jan. 2013 Waiting

8 Stage 8: Final draft prepared— submission of dissertation 1 Feb. 2013 Waiting

9 Final Deadline—9 months from module start date. 6 Feb.2013 Waiting

Completion of the remaining parts requires more commitment from researchers in data collection and analysis. In order to ensure the project is completed within the schedule, the research team will be prepared early enough through training them on how the data will be collected. In addition, pre-visits will be conducted in the selected locations to ensure respondents are well prepared and ready to give the necessary information. Moreover, the data collection tool will be pre tested to ensure their efficiency, troubleshooting any problem that might cause delay in data collection.

8.0 ReferencesAl-Momani, A. (2000) ‘Construction Delay: A Quantitative Analysis’, International Journal of Project Management, 18 (1), pp.51-59, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00060-X” http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00060-X (Accessed: 27 November 2012).

Arcuri, F. J. & Hildreth, J. C. (2007) The principals of Scheduled Impact Analysis. Virginia Tech: VirginiaTech College of Enginnering, pp. 41-50, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://www.virginiadot.org/business/resources/const/0703_PrinciplesofSIA.pdf” http://www.virginiadot.org/business/resources/const/0703_PrinciplesofSIA.pdf (Accessed 25 November 2012).

Assaf, S. A., Al-Khalil, M. & Al-Hazmi, M. (1995) ‘Causes of delay in large building Oil and gas industry projects’, Journal of Management in Engineering, 11 (2), pp.45-50, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://ehis.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=2&hid=101&sid=f4ce09e5-9699-4628-8e1f-d55cab42a9e7%40sessionmgr15” http://ehis.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=2&hid=101&sid=f4ce09e5-9699-4628-8e1f-d55cab42a9e7%40sessionmgr15 (Accessed: 26 November 2012).

Assaf, S. A & Al-Hejji, S. (2006) Causes of delay in large construction projects. “International

Bruzelius, N., Flyvbjerg, B. & Rothengatter, W. (1998) ‘Big decision, big risks: Improving Accountability in mega projects’, Transport Policy, 9 (2), pp.143-154, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0967-070X(02)00014-8” http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0967-070X(02)00014-8 (Accessed: 12 November 2012).

Chiara, M., Doets, K., Mundici, D. & Van Benthem, J. (1997) The Tenth International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Florence, August 1995. Netherlands: Kluwer Academic.

Dayi, S. (2010) Scheduled Delay Analysis In Construction Projects: A Case Study Using Time Impact Time Impact Analysis Method, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “https://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612823/index.pdf” https://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612823/index.pdf (Accessed: 7 November 2012).

Farah, T. (2005). Review of current estimating capabilities of the 3D building information model

software to support design for production/oil and gas industry.

Faridi, A. S. & El-Sayegh, S. M. (2006) ‘Significant Factors Causing Delay in the UAE Construction Industry’, Construction Management & Economics, 24(11), pp.1167-1176, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1080/01446190600827033” http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1080/01446190600827033 (Accessed: 27 November 2012).

Flyvbjerg, B, Holm, S. & Buhl, S. (2004) ‘What causes cost overrun in transport Infrastructure projects?, Transport Reviews, 24(1), pp. 3–18, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://ehis.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=576d5406-f644-4b15-afa5-118e5814c7e6%40sessionmgr115&vid=1&hid=120” http://ehis.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?sid=576d5406-f644-4b15-afa5-118e5814c7e6%40sessionmgr115&vid=1&hid=120 (Accessed: 11 November 2012).

Han, H. S. et al. (2009) ‘Analyzing Schedule Delay of Mega Project: Lessons Learned from Korea Train Express, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 56(2), pp. 243-256, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1109/TEM.2009.2016042” http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1109/TEM.2009.2016042 (Accessed: 11 November 2012).

Menesi, W. (2007) Construction Delay Analysis under Multiple Baseline Updates, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://www.uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/10012/2737/1/MASc-Thesis-Construction%20Delay%20Analysis%20under%20Multiple%20Baseline%20Updates.pdf” http://www.uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/10012/2737/1/MASc-Thesis-Construction%20Delay%20Analysis%20under%20Multiple%20Baseline%20Updates.pdf (Accessed: 24 November 2012).

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology, and Practice.

New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.

Nicholls, C. (2011) The Advantages of Using Qualitative Research Methods [Online] Brighton: Alexander Technique College. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://www.alexander-technique-college.com/files/2011/10/books_articles_qualitative.pdf” http://www.alexander-technique-college.com/files/2011/10/books_articles_qualitative.pdf (Accessed: 5 December 2012).

Opdenakker, R. (2006) ‘Advantages and Disadvantages of Four Interview Techniques in Qualitative Research’, Forum: Qualitative Social Research, 7 (4), pp. 1-10, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://www.qualitative-research.net/index.php/fqs/article/view/175/391” http://www.qualitative-research.net/index.php/fqs/article/view/175/391 (Accessed: 5 December 2012).

Popescu, C. M. & Charoenngam, C. (1995) Project Planning, scheduling, and Control in Construction. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Ratcliff, D. (n.d.) Methods of Data Analysis in Qualitative Research [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://psychsoma.co.za/files/15methods.pdf” http://psychsoma.co.za/files/15methods.pdf (Accessed: 5 December 2012).

Smart Grid News. (2012). Project delays, budget overruns could cost energy industry trillions. Retrieved from:http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/Business_Strategy/Project-delays-budget-overruns-could-cost-energy-industry-trillions-4956.html#.UMXpleQ05C8

Stelth, P. & Le Roy, G. (2009) ‘Projects’ Analysis through CPM’, School of Doctoral Studies Journal, 1 (1), p.10, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://www.iiuedu.eu/press/journals/sds/sds1_july_2008/05_SECC_01.pdf” http://www.iiuedu.eu/press/journals/sds/sds1_july_2008/05_SECC_01.pdf (Accessed: 3 December 2012).

Struwig, M. & Stead, G. (2001) Planning, Designing and Reporting Research. Cape Town: Pearson Education South Africa.

Trauner, T. (2009) Construction Delays: Understanding Them Clearly, Analyzing Them Correctly. 2nd ed. USA: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann [Kindle DX version].

Williams, T. (2003) ‘Assessing extension of time delays on major projects’, International Journal of Project Management, 21 (1), pp. 19–26, [Online]. Available from: HYPERLINK “http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00060-6” http://dx.doi.org.ezproxy.liv.ac.uk/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00060-6 (Accessed: 13 November 2012).